Can Dice Control Beat Craps? Evidence and Test Standards
Setting the dice is real; proving control is a different matter. A shooter can arrange the starting faces and practise a repeatable-looking delivery. The evidence reviewed for this page does not establish that a human shooter can reproduce a casino advantage after a legal throw on a full table.
Dice setting, influence and control are different claims
| Term | What it actually claims |
|---|---|
| Dice setting | Choosing the faces and orientation before the throw. This is observable but does not by itself change outcomes. |
| Dice influence | Producing a small repeatable departure from fair-dice probabilities. |
| Dice control | Influencing outcomes enough to overcome the house edge of a defined betting strategy. |
Moving from the first claim to the third requires measurements, not confidence. A shooter may genuinely believe practice improved the throw while remembering long hands, discounting short hands and changing bets after the result.
What published research contributes
Scott and Smith’s 2020 original research, “Pair-a-Dice Lost: Experiments in Dice Control”, used a purpose-built throwing machine intended to mimic common control methods. The researchers calibrated flight with high-speed video and recorded 7,557 throws under several settings. Whatever claim a seller makes, that scale and instrumentation illustrate how much more is required than a few impressive casino sessions.
Ethier’s 2025 paper, “Testing for Dice Control at Craps”, addresses how to test the claim. It compares statistics such as the proportion of sevens, Pass Line wins, mean hand length and a likelihood-ratio test. Crucially, it distinguishes detecting some departure from randomness from exceeding the break-even level needed to beat a particular wager.
A separate real-casino study of the illusion of control found that players tended to risk more and choose more difficult bets when throwing their own dice than when someone else threw. That is a behavioural result, not proof that their rolls improved.
Why casino conditions make the claim difficult
A casino throw includes two dice, distance, felt, bounce, collision and a back wall designed to disrupt a simple slide. House procedures commonly require a genuine attempt to reach the far wall; the crew can warn a shooter or pass the dice when repeated throws fail the procedure.
A practice rig that is shorter, softer or missing the same wall geometry is not the casino environment. Results achieved by sliding a die, avoiding the wall or changing the landing zone do not establish a legal casino edge and may cross from poor procedure into cheating.
How a credible dice-control test should work
- State the claim first. Name the dice set, target distribution, table, throw distance, wall rule and betting strategy before collecting results.
- Use enough throws. A few hundred rolls can be dominated by ordinary variance. Sample size should be chosen from the effect that must be detected and the statistical power required.
- Record every valid attempt. Do not discard bad-looking throws, short hands, warm-ups or sessions after seeing the outcome.
- Use independent observation. Video, locked data and a neutral recorder reduce selective reporting.
- Correct for multiple tests. Searching many sets, shooters and outcome groups until one looks unusual creates false discoveries.
- Replicate out of sample. A promising first result needs a new predeclared trial, ideally by another investigator.
- Measure economic value. Statistical difference is not automatically large enough to overcome the chosen bet’s house edge, limits, errors and variance.
Why a rolls-to-seven ratio is not enough
Dice-control discussions often reduce a shooter’s record to the number of rolls divided by the number of sevens. That can be a useful descriptive number, but it is not a complete test. A ratio looks better when practice rolls, short rolls, disputed outcomes or inconvenient sessions are excluded. It also ignores which sevens occurred on come-outs, which points were made and which wagers were actually working.
The test must match the claim. If the promise is fewer point-cycle sevens, define the point cycle before recording. If the promise is a Pass Line advantage, measure complete Pass decisions. If the seller claims control of particular faces or axes, record all 36 ordered outcomes—not just total sevens. Then report the sample size, uncertainty and predeclared stopping rule.
Stopping after a personal best or extending a trial until the result becomes favourable invalidates the usual probability calculation. The same is true of trying many dice sets and reporting only the winner. A credible analysis includes all planned trials and clearly labels exploratory findings that need a new test.
Common pieces of “proof” that do not prove an edge
- A personal best hand or a video selected because it went well.
- A seven-to-roll ratio calculated after excluding disputed throws.
- A student testimonial without complete wager and roll records.
- Slow-motion footage showing attractive rotation but no outcome test.
- A winning trip report with changing bets and no comparison group.
- An instructor’s reputation, book sales or years in the industry.
Does selling a class make someone a scammer?
Not by itself. People may sell practice sessions as entertainment, mechanics coaching or table-confidence training. The problem begins when marketing promises a repeatable casino advantage without data capable of supporting that promise. Evaluate the exact claim, refund terms, conflicts of interest and evidence; do not make personal accusations a substitute for analysis.
What practice can legitimately improve
Practice can help a new player hit the far wall, keep both dice on the table, understand when to throw, avoid interfering with bets and feel less intimidated. Those are useful procedural skills. They do not change the 36 two-dice combinations used to price bets.
Quick answers
Does a 30- or 40-roll hand prove dice control?
No. Long hands are memorable but possible under random play. Proof requires the shooter’s complete predeclared record compared with the correct random model.
If casinos allow dice setting, does that mean it cannot work?
Casino tolerance is not scientific evidence in either direction. A crew may allow a quick set because it does not delay the game while still enforcing the required throw.
Does hitting the back wall guarantee perfect randomness?
“Guarantee” is too strong. The wall, bounce and collisions add sensitivity and make repeatability harder. The right conclusion comes from measured outcomes under the actual procedure, not from declaring any single table feature magical.
Could a small influence exist without beating the game?
Yes in principle. That is why the 2025 testing paper separates evidence of some control from evidence above a break-even threshold. A detectable physical effect can still be too small or unstable to overcome the wager’s cost.
Bottom line
Enjoy setting the dice if the casino permits it and it does not delay the game. Do not increase stakes or buy expensive instruction on the assumption that appearance equals control. Until a shooter demonstrates a replicable advantage under a properly designed test and casino-valid conditions, price the game as random and choose bets accordingly.
i agree with you about “the captain of craps” HIs name is never mentioned and the author shows no proof whatsoever that he existed. He talks about the five count which i think has a little bit of legitamacy by avoiding short rolls and only betting on hot shooters but it still cant overcome the random 12 that will come up. Ive shot the dice for about 30 minutes a couple of times and made alot of money but it wasnt because i controlled the dice. ive seen people set the dice and bounce of the table over and over and then seven out. thanks for the good article keep up the good work.
Hello JeffDunstan, thank you for you comment, glad you are enjoying the content at CrapsPit! Good luck at the tables and have a wonderful holiday season.
I really appreciate your very “matter of fact” approach to this. I love craps, and the game is fun. Sometimes it’s fun to pick up superstitions for the night, such as a quick blow of the dice, or throwing with my off hand… But these are only fun, and rarely last the night before betrayal of the technique sets in haha.
I work in marketing and sales, and am VERY annoyed when I see marketing psychology used to dupe people into buying into a bad product. It comes in many forms, from getting rich with real estate, MLM businesses, or dice control / counting cards…
IF a person could control dice, then Casino would either devise a way to defeat their method, or simply remove the game. This is why Blackjack uses multiple decks. Card counting is real, but when you have 3-5 decks of cards and they are reshuffled half way through, it ceases to be effective.
Dice control could have been a real thing at a point in history, but look at those rubber pyramids… just perfectly designed to randomize even the most perfect throw. If those didn’t do the job, it would be something else, or the craps tables just wouldn’t exist.
I do believe that a person could control the dice well throwing into a box, even at a few feet of distance it could be possible. Then we look at those pyramids and the entire practice becomes a worthless endeavor.
Thank you for your comment, I just wish more people read the posts at CrapsPit before throwing away their hard earned cash! Enjoy the site!
Great article!
I 99.99 agree with you guys!
However, there is a part of me that can’t completely discount dice control. Hear me out. Humans are capable of amazing feats (darts. dice cups, bow and arrows, and tons of other unbelievable things). I could find it in some universe that it maybe possible for a human to be able to throw dice in such a way that it is more likely to hit certain sets of numbers. However, this would involve EXTREME amounts of practice, dedication, and control. They would also have to throw the dice in such a way that it barely hits the back wall, which will likely get you kicked out or yelled at by the dealers (not sliding per se, but a really light toss). The likes of which I am not sure are capable of when working with an item as small as dice, where the smallest mm difference can cause it to tumble unexpectedly. On top of this, the variation from randomness would have to be across a massive amount of sets. This means that it would be highly unlikely for anyone to ever make money, or even beat the house edge. (haven’t done the math on this yet). You would also have to largely account for variation of the dice, tables, and position. Interestingly enough I did a similar study in college and force of air friction (cf and cp) are negligible up to .01 mm accuracy.
Either way, I’m with you guys!
Thank you for your comment Mike! It might be possible but once the dice hits the pyramids at the end of the table the outcome is going to be random.
Lots of great discussion. What about that bottom edge adjoining the tabletop? Being a flat area without pyramids, that surface wouldn’t qualify as having a randomizing effect if one’s dice could roll up and gently hit just that area, right?
Thank you for the comment. Good observation, either way the second dice will land randomly after hitting the wall with the pyramids. It would probably be considered a good throw but if you keep short rolling the dice it will become a problem. Both dice must hit the back wall.
14-years ago, a year before I MOVED to Las Vegas, I drank the GTC “Dice Control” Koolaid. BUT, shortly AFTER settling in LV I gave up all “gaming”, altogether. Apparently, nothing much has changed in the ensuing years. GTC is still profitably working its hustle. And “gaming” is still a monumentally BORING and profitless WASTE OF TIME!
AND, …. “Controlled Shooting” STILL DOESN’T WORK in real casino play with real money at stake!
In practice sessions, totaling 100’s of hours and 1,000’s to 10’s of thousands practice tosses, on real craps tables, our 7’s roll ratios got up to 6.4 or so. One of the women players I bankrolled was shooting consistently above RR 7 (witchcraft?). Yes, these #’s are based on statistically significant sample sizes and the dice tosses were all bounced off the regulation rubber pyramid backstop material.
When I was playing for real, We’d be at the table for 4-6 hours at a stretch. One of my associates, engaged in “controlled shooting” as a real job, for 6-months, 5-days a week 8-12 hours per day! This is real casino playing time, not “simulated” in somebody’s garage.
Fortunately, none of us ruined our lives or finances as we were all knowledgeable craps bettors and thus kept our odds exposure to the House at << 1%. But, it was at BEST a BORING POINTLESS wage labor job, in a crappy casino environment, earning maybe $1-$2 per hour (when comps were figured in).
Once I even got "tapped" by security as a suspected money launderer, due to my lengthy action and low loss rate.
Most of the purported GTC "pro instructors" appeared more focused on casino comps, allowing them discounted rooms, free drinks, and buffet meals. (Plus, THEIR LV holiday extended weekends were FREE, courtesy of the GTC seminar tuition's paid by all the hopefuls)
The GTC in-crowd all seemed to think comps were a big deal, like a status symbol. That, and the camaraderie! Yes, the people I hung out with were great, personable, very interesting lives, world experiences, and moneyed. None fit the broken trailer park gambling addict profile.
I could relate many interesting points about my time w GTC, fellow shooters, and my pit boss and floor manager acquaintances here in LV. But a few will suffice:
"Dominator" and most of the instructors would never tell us students when and where they would be playing on any night. Their "story" was that they didn't want a mass student entourage pileup at some casino table, thereby PO'ing that casino's management. Well, too soon old, to late smart, …
Your statistical 7's Roll Ratio doesn't NOT translate to an income earning odds advantage in real play. Me and my cohorts LIVE in Las Vegas, we're well rested, could play endlessly at our convenience, at negligible logistical cost, anywhere and everywhere, and we weren't burning $400/day in hotels, food, and transportation as do the tourist gamblers. We can pick 'em up, set, and toss as fast as anyone, AND bounce 'em off the back wall so that they [mostly] land well back of the PASS line. But none of this does a damn bit of good!
Gambling is just like religion, or stock market speculation. People SO badly want wealth, eternal life, or independence that they'll just keep desperately buying into whatever is being peddled, regardless of how blatant the common sense evidence is pointing to the fallacy of that promotion.
"Controlled shooters" make much of a table surface's bounce characteristics. However this parameter is easily and quickly changed by the casino. One retired floor manager told me the amusing story of how he ordered the the change-out of the underlayment on one table, mid-shift. Seems a "crew" of shooters was in town and they'd picked one particular table on his floor as THE BEST for plying their controlled shooting. So, after they'd retired in the early morning, he ordered Maintenance to change the underlayment by adding two thicknesses of newspaper. The pit crew could hardly contain their laughter when the shooters returned and couldn't figure out why they couldn't keep their bounces under control like they had in the previous session!
Craps table surface characteristics can be quickly changed. The casino doesn't have to wait until the layout wears out. And, the table comes apart and goes back together real quick and easy.
I had dinner in 2005 or '06 with an emeritus professor of gaming statistics from Princeton University. He was out here in LV on a consulting job for one of the big casino chains. Seems the casino had made some minor modification in one of their games and wanted the Prof. to run millions of computerized simulation combinations of the modified game, to confirm that, that minor change would not provide an exploitable opening for some equally clever gambler.
During our dinner I mentioned to him how convoluted, and apparently ridiculous, were the craps betting combinations some of my associates were spreading on the layout, in an attempt to shift the game's odds to THEIR favor. You've doubtless heard of these; usually combinations of COME – DON'T COME and INSURANCE bets.
The Prof just laughed. He said: "Look, its really VERY simple.
1) ANY, and ALL bets on the layout are LOSING propositions.
2) Bets are independent of each other
3) Craps is an independent trials process (the prior outcome has NO EFFECT on the NEXT outcome).
4) NO combination of ALL LOSING bets will add to yield a winning outcome!
If you want to make money off of gaming, … buy a casino, or write books and hold seminars for the believers. And, as table games players burn out on average in 3-5 years, there's always a new crop of suckers out there willing to buy books and attend seminars.
Chris, thank you for sharing this with our readers. Hopefully, it will help save people from signing up to seminars and wasting their money. As we have said in over and over, craps is a game that should be played and be enjoyed with no expectations to win. Don’t play it hoping to make a profit. Enjoy your wins and accept your losses.
Then explain how guys like the dominator or bonethrower on youtube can consistantly throw 90 plus times in a row without a 7
We beat the dice control con to death, so we
won’t spend more time on it.