Hedging Craps Bets: Why Protection Usually Costs More
Craps checks · Opposing bets · Expected loss · Worked examples
A hedge adds a second bet that wins under some outcomes where the first bet loses. It may reduce one visible loss, but it usually adds another house edge. In craps, “protection” often means paying the casino for a less volatile-looking result.
Opposite outcomes do not cancel the house edge
Combining bets can reshape wins and losses. It cannot make their expected costs disappear. If the added wager has a high edge, the hedge makes the overall package more expensive.
Example 1: a $1 Any Craps “craps check”
A player puts $10 on Pass Line and $1 on Any Craps for the come-out roll. Assume Any Craps pays 7 to 1.
| Come-out result | Combinations | $10 Pass | $1 Any Craps | Immediate net |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2, 3, or 12 | 4 | −$10 | +$7 | −$3 |
| 7 or 11 | 8 | +$10 | −$1 | +$9 |
| Point number | 24 | Unresolved | −$1 | Pass continues, hedge lost |
The hedge softens the four craps outcomes, but Any Craps loses on the other 32 combinations. Its expected result for each $1 wager is:
[(4 × $7) − (32 × $1)] ÷ 36 = −$0.1111
That is the 11.11% house edge on Any Craps. The $10 Pass Line wager already has an expected loss of about $0.1414 per resolved decision. Adding the craps check does not protect that expectation; it adds about 11.1 cents of expected loss every come-out roll.
Example 2: Hard 6 against Don’t Pass
Suppose 6 is the point. A player has $5 Don’t Pass plus $12 laying odds, then adds $2 Hard 6 as a hedge. From this point:
| Resolving result | Combinations | Combined result |
|---|---|---|
| Hard 6 (3-3) | 1 | Lose $17 on Don’t side, win $18 on Hard 6: +$1 |
| Easy 6 | 4 | Lose both positions: −$19 |
| 7 | 6 | Win $15 on Don’t side, lose Hard 6: +$13 |
The $2 Hard 6 changes the shape of the result, but its own 9.09% edge costs about 18.2 cents in expectation over a resolved Hard 6 decision. It “covers” only one of the five ways to make 6 and reduces the win when 7 arrives.
A hedge can reduce variance without creating value
Not every hedge is irrational. A player may knowingly accept a higher expected cost to produce a narrower range of outcomes. The mistake is calling that package safer without measuring the new cost—or believing it creates an advantage.
| Question | What to calculate |
|---|---|
| Which exact outcome is covered? | List dice combinations, not number names alone. |
| What new losses appear? | Count every outcome where the hedge loses while the main bet continues. |
| What does the hedge pay? | Use the actual table paytable and commission timing. |
| What happens to total exposure? | Add every working chip, not just the original bet. |
| Does either wager have positive expectation? | In ordinary casino craps, the answer is no except that free odds itself has zero edge. |
Common hedges to examine carefully
- Any Craps against Pass Line on the come-out.
- Any 7 against working Place bets.
- Hardways against a Don’t Pass or Don’t Come point.
- Field plus Place 5, 6, and 8 combinations marketed as “covering everything.”
- Pass and Don’t Pass positions that mostly cancel while still leaving a barred outcome or other cost.
Short version: when the goal is to risk less, the cleanest hedge is usually a smaller original bet—or no bet. That reduces dollars exposed without buying a second disadvantage.
Review the individual math for Any Craps, Hardways, Pass Line, and Don’t Pass.
I don’t 100% agree with you here. I am a dark-sider (I play the Don’ts) and I always back up my bet on the come out. I always run a $10 Don’t Pass bet unless the table minimum is higher and hedge it with $5, $3 on “ANY 7” with 4:1 odds, $1 on 11 with 15:1 odds and $1 on 12 with 30:1 odds. If anything other than a point is rolled I either break even or make money. All of those bets cost me $15.
If 7 comes up I lose my Don’t Pass, 11 and 12 for a total loss of $12, but ANY 7 pays 4:1 on $3 so I break even
If 11 Comes up I lose my Don’t Pass, ANY 7 and 12, but $1 on 15:1 odds puts me +$1
If any craps come up the ANY 7, 11 and 12 lose for -$5, Don’t Pass pays and I am +$5 overall
Should 12 roll out, my ANY 7 and 11 go away for a loss of $4, the Don’t Pass pushes, and at 30:1 that roll puts me +$25
Now, yes, if a point is established I lose all $5 but it’s easier to make that money back with place and lay bets. Me losing money is never a result of the come out, I can only lose money once a point is established
Hi Brewski, thanks for your comment. Sorry, but to put it bluntly, you’re wrong.
With all its various bets and assigned payoff odds, the game of craps simply does not allow the player to gain an advantage over the house no matter how badly you want to believe that you’ve so cleverly figured out what the world’s smartest Harvard mathematicians and statisticians have never successfully discovered. Period.
There’s one key sentence in the article that we want you to focus on, which is, “If you use a bad proposition bet like a Hardway or a Craps Check to protect a good bet like the Pass Line or Don’t Pass, then the only thing you accomplish is making the good bet worse by increasing the overall house advantage.” That’s a simple mathematical fact that you must accept. If you can’t accept our word, then do the math and calculate it yourself (refer to our other articles that explain how to do this). If you can’t accept our word, then we leave it up to you to run the numbers instead of us doing it for you–that way, it’ll stick in your brain better.
It’s like the player who argues that the Doey-Don’t system protects the come-out for the Don’t player. The problem is, the game’s inventor built in the Bar 12, which is a push for the Don’t. The Don’t player thinks, “The 12 hardly ever shows on the come-out, so once I get beyond the come-out I have the advantage after a point is established.” The flaw in that logic is that the player doesn’t understand that the 12 shows on the come-out just enough over the long-term so the casino maintains its edge and, therefore, still makes money off the Doey-Don’t player over the long-term.
The same is true for your hedge system. No matter how much protection you think you have on the come-out, the simple statistical fact is that enough points are established instead of naturals rolled on the come-out such that you are guaranteed to be a loser over the long-term. To be a smart, strong, solid player, you must make your brain accept the mathematical fact that there’s no combination of bets or bet amounts, no matter how logical the combinations may seem, that will give the player an advantage over the casino.
Math doesn’t lie, math has no emotion, math is pure fact. And the pure fact is that there’s no hedge method that ever has been or ever will be discovered (including yours) that gives the player an advantage in a legitimate game of craps. Period.
If you can’t and won’t accept that, then nothing else we say will change your mind, so all we can say is good luck and have fun at the tables.
Editorial clarification, September 6, 2026: The core point is about expected cost, not a guaranteed personal result. Adding a negative-edge hedge adds expected loss under its stated rules, although it can change the pattern of wins and losses. Any finite session or test can finish ahead or behind; the historical wording should not be read as a guarantee of a particular loss. The updated worked examples above show the cost and outcome tradeoffs without that guarantee.
I am a “don’t” better. The craps machine will not allow me to place the point number. It also won’t allow me to place the number on “Don’t Come.” I know hedging is generally a bad idea, but I am happy with little wins at a time. These little wins add up. Will the tables ever adopt this rule?
I play the don’t pass for $10 dollars and usually hedge it with a field bet. I know the field isn’t the greatest bet, but it has a much lower house edge than the prop bets (I only play the field if the 2 is double and the 12 pays triple.) I only loose money if a 7 comes natural, 5,6,8 is the point and then the shooter makes it. If an 11 rolls out on the come out roll, I break even. if a 2 or a 12 rolls out, i make 30 dollars.
Subzero, thanks for your post. Without going into all the math, the simple mathematical fact is that using a “bad” bet (such as the Field) only makes a “good” bet (such as the DON’T) worse. Despite the ill-placed logic that hedge bettors use, it’s always flawed, always. No combination of bets and bet amounts exists that will reduce the house advantage to zero, and certainly not swing the advantage to you. Don’t listen to the Internet nitwits who claim to have figured out a way to beat the game or eliminate the house advantage using hedge bets. Hedge bets do only one thing—they move money from your pocket to the casino’s pocket quicker than if you only play the DON’T. The DON’T with Odds has the lowest house advantage of any other bet and any combination of bets, period. Most people don’t want to see the math; they don’t understand it; it gives them a headache. If that’s you, then at least take the time to test your system and track the results. I wouldn’t use a video game to test it because I’d be unsure if it’s programmed to be as random as it could be (i.e., it may be programmed to win more than it should to give the player more fun and excitement). Instead, test your system manually by rolling dice on your dining table. You might think, “That’ll take forever, forget that!” Before you give up without even trying, let me ask—isn’t it worth the time to see what kind of results such a system actually produces? You risk hundreds or maybe thousands of dollars at the table on a system you believe and trust is valid, but you have no basis for believing in it. So, sit at your dining table and roll the dice. Do it. Play 5,000 games and record the results in a notebook. Take your time over a few weeks to do it so you don’t lose interest. 30 minutes today, 10 minutes tomorrow, 20 minutes the next day, an hour on Saturday, etc. Eventually, you’ll accumulate data on at least 5,000 games. For each game, record the win or loss amount and keep a running track. After 5,000 games (10,000 would be better), see what your net loss is. I already know what the outcome will be, but you need to see it for yourself. That’s the only way you’re going to be convinced that, as the saying goes, “…hedge bets do nothing but make a good bet worse.” Good luck and have fun at the tables!
Editorial clarification, September 6, 2026: A 5,000-game or 10,000-game trial is not guaranteed to show a net loss, even when the wagers have negative expectation. A test can illustrate variance and help check accounting, but it cannot establish an advantage or a guaranteed result from its final balance alone. Calculate expected cost from the actual rules and payouts. Any claim that a wager combination has the lowest house edge must state the paytables, Odds multiples and whether the comparison is per flat wager, total action or roll. True Odds has zero expected cost of its own but still increases money at risk; adding a negative-edge hedge adds expected cost.