6 and 8 Regression With 4/10: Correct Cash Flow
$18 each on 6/8 · Regress · Add 4/10 · Valid press ladders
This contributor strategy begins with $18 each on 6 and 8, regresses both after one hit, then uses a second hit to add 4 and 10. The opening cash flow reaches the following checkpoint: it reaches a $1 locked gain with $34 working, provided both hits occur before 7.
Two 6/8 hits before 7 occur 39.06% of the time
Six and 8 have ten combined combinations and 7 has six. Ignoring neutral totals, one 6/8 hit arrives before 7 with probability 10/16; requiring two hits gives (10/16)² = 39.06%.
Opening and regression cash flow
| Stage | Action | Cash in rack | Working | Net if 7 follows |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Start | $18 each on 6 and 8 | $0 | $36 | −$36 |
| First hit pays $21 | Regress both to $12; return $12 | $33 | $24 | −$3 |
| Second hit pays $14 | Add $5 each on 4 and 10; collect $4 | $37 | $34 | +$1 |
The first regression returns the $21 win plus $12 removed from 6/8, or $33 against the original $36. The second hit uses $10 of its $14 payout to establish 4 and 10 and banks $4, taking total rack money to $37.
What happens when 4 or 10 hits
A $5 Place 4 or 10 wins $9. The contributor proposed adding $1 to move both numbers from $5 to $10: the $10 combined increase uses the $9 win plus $1 from the rack. That leaves $36 in the rack and raises the working layout from $34 to $44—break-even cash with $44 exposed.
The $9 profit used here requires a $5 Place 4 or Place 10. A Buy wager has a different payout and a commission, so it cannot be substituted without recalculating the cash flow. Minimum commissions and rounding can outweigh the Buy advantage at a small stake. Ask when Buy bets are accepted and whether commission is charged upfront or on a win.
Contributor press ladders
| Numbers | Original ladder | Unit check |
|---|---|---|
| 6/8 | $12 → $24 → $30 → $42 → $66 → $90 → $150 → $240 → $360 → $600 | All multiples of $6 |
| 5/9 | $5 → $10 → $25 → $35 → $60 → $75 → $125 → $200 → $300 → $500 | All multiples of $5 |
| 4/10 | $5 → $10 → $25 → $50 → $100 → $200 → $300 → $500 | Valid $5 units; Buy rules vary |
The ladder gives permitted target amounts, not instructions for funding each jump. At every hit, write how much comes from the payout, how much additional cash is required, and how much is collected. “Same bet” should always remain an option.
What the hit probabilities and rack balance mean
- Ten ways to roll 6 or 8 versus six ways to roll 7 gives 62.5% for the next relevant result—not certainty.
- Two required hits reduce the probability to 39.06%.
- “Recouped investment” is true only after the second hit and only while returned chips stay in the rack.
- Expanding to 5 and 9 adds coverage and exposure; it does not use costless house money.
- Recent rolls do not identify a better time to press.
Compare power pressing 6 and 8, the $132 Inside regression, and the underlying Place-bet payouts.
A locked rack surplus can be spent by a later press
After the second 6/8 hit, the displayed $36 starting allocation has $37 in the rack and $34 working. A subsequent $5 Place 4 win pays $9; increasing both 4 and 10 to $10 costs $10. The rack falls to $36 and working exposure rises to $44. If 7 follows, the final rack is exactly the original $36: the earlier $1 surplus has been spent.
Another press that uses rack chips could push the final result below the starting allocation even after this successful opening. To preserve a particular cash floor, check the rack after every proposed change and decline any press that would cross it. A table minimum, commission, tip or additional contract can also change this isolated example. The $1 claim assumes only the shown Place wagers and no later spending of the returned money.
Include the two losing opening branches
Starting with only the displayed $36 allocation, a 7 before either 6 or 8 loses $36. Its probability is 6/16, or 37.5%, after ignoring totals that leave these bets unchanged. Exactly one 6/8 hit followed by 7 has probability (10/16) × (6/16), or 23.4375%; after the regression, that branch leaves $33 in the rack and loses $3 overall. Reaching the second hit has probability 39.0625%. These three branches total 100%, but the last is a checkpoint rather than a completed session: $34 is still working. Neutral rolls can lengthen the wait without changing these branch probabilities while the wagers remain working. Turning bets off or changing the layout requires a different calculation.
