3 Number Progression/Regression: Correct Cash Flow
Pass with Odds · Place 6 and 8 · Press once · Regress
The 3 Number Progression/Regression combines a Pass Line point with Place 6 and 8. One Place hit presses both numbers; a second Place hit regresses them below the starting level. The contributor’s $5 example correctly locks an $8 cycle gain if the returned cash is not re-bet.
The plan needs two Place hits, not merely two rolls
The plan requires two 6/8 hits, not merely two rolls. Ignoring neutral totals, two 6/8 hits before 7 occur with probability (10/16)² = 39.06%. A point win or come-out can also interrupt the stated layout.
$5 line-bet example
| Stage | Action | Rack cash | Still working |
|---|---|---|---|
| Point established | $5 Pass + $10 Odds + $12 each 6/8 | $0 | $39 |
| First 6/8 hit | Win $14; press both from $12 to $18 | $2 | $51 |
| Second 6/8 hit | Win $21; regress both from $18 to $6 | $47 total | $27 |
| 7 next with point 5 | All $27 working loses | $47 | +$8 cycle |
After the first hit, increasing both Place bets by $6 costs $12 of the $14 win. After the second, the $21 payout plus $24 removed in the regression adds $45 to the earlier $2 rack balance.
Scaled $10 line-bet example
The contributor’s larger variant starts with $10 Pass, $20 Odds, and $24 each on 6/8: $78. It later regresses to $18 each on 6/8, so the exit level is not a literal doubling of the $5 example’s $6 each. The first $28 win presses both to $36 and banks $4. The second $42 win plus a $36 regression to $18 each returns $78 more. Rack cash becomes $82 with $66 working, locking $4 if 7 follows.
If point 5 wins after the $5 example regresses
The $5 example’s second Place hit leaves $47 in the rack, $12 on Place 6/8, and a $5 Pass Line bet plus $10 Odds against point 5. A later 5 wins the line contract: the $5 flat bet returns $10 and the $10 Odds returns $25 at 3 to 2. The rack becomes $82, while the $12 Place layout remains on the felt. Taking down those Place bets would bring the rack to $94 against the original $39 outlay, for $55 net profit on that completed sequence.
Leaving the Place bets up keeps $12 exposed, typically off on the next come-out unless called working. Do not report $82 as pure profit: it includes returned line stakes, earlier Place collections and the profit from point 5. This is a favorable branch, not a promise that point 5 will arrive before 7.
Compare the early loss with the advertised lock-in
Keep point 5 for both examples so a 6/8 hit does not also resolve the Pass contract. Assume every shown bet is working, no intervening point win, and a 7 arrives at one of these checkpoints. The cycle result is the cash already returned minus the original entry; do not subtract the current layout twice.
| Checkpoint | $39 entry: cash returned | $39 cycle result | $78 cycle result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Before either Place hit | $0 | −$39 | −$78 |
| After first hit and press | $2 | −$37 | −$74 |
| After second hit and regression | $47 | +$8 | +$4 |
The larger version has returned $4 after its first press and $82 after its second-hit regression. Subtracting the original $78 gives the right-hand results. Its smaller final gain reflects the contributor’s different regression level, not an arithmetic doubling of the smaller plan.
After the first hit, the smaller layout has $51 exposed even though the cycle would finish only $37 down on 7: the earlier $14 win increased total chips before $12 was pressed. Exposure and net cycle loss answer different questions. The protected gain appears only after the second hit and only while those returned chips stay out of further action. Review the whole-layout exposure before adopting either size.
Rules to settle before placing the bets
- If the point is 6 or 8, decide whether that number is also placed.
- If the Pass point is made before two Place hits, decide whether to reset or keep the Place sequence through the come-out.
- Place bets are normally off on the come-out unless called working.
- Point-specific Odds payouts change the line portion, although Odds remains zero edge.
- Pressing after the regression can give the locked $8 or $4 back.
What “three numbers” really means
The three targets are the Pass point, 6, and 8. They do not all have the same payout or loss condition. A point hit wins the line contract; 6/8 hits pay the Place bets; 7 loses all three once a point exists. Keep those components separate rather than calling the complete layout free after regression.
Review Pass and Odds, the 6/8 regression with 4/10, and Place-bet payouts.
Write the reset rule before the first hit
Record four state items before using the progression: the Pass point, whether a Place bet duplicates point 6 or 8, whether the Place bets work on the come-out, and what happens when the line point wins before two Place hits. Those choices determine whether the next roll continues the same cycle or starts a new one.
A conservative tracking rule is: pause the progression whenever the Pass contract resolves, call the Place bets off for the next come-out, and resume only after recording the new point and current Place levels. If the new point is 6 or 8, decide whether to remove the duplicate Place wager before action reopens.
The reset rule does not improve expected value. It prevents an old press level, a new Pass contract, and a changed point from being treated as one continuous sequence after the table state has already changed.
