4/10 Point Progression: Two-Hit Strategy Explained
Point 4 or 10 · $54 excluding point · Two hits · Third-cycle press
The 4/10 Point Progression waits for 4 or 10 to become the Pass point, covers the other five box numbers for $54, collects two hits, and calls the Place bets off. After two successful cycles, the contributor doubles the layout for a third attempt.
A 4/10 point does not make 7 less likely
Seven still has six combinations on every roll. Waiting for a 4/10 point defines which number is excluded; it does not identify a safer shooter or make the two-hit target due.
$54 layout when 10 is the point
| Covered number | Place bet | Win |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | $10 | $18 |
| 5 | $10 | $14 |
| 6 | $12 | $14 |
| 8 | $12 | $14 |
| 9 | $10 | $14 |
| Total | $54 | Two hits target $28–$36 |
If 4 is the point, reverse 4 and 10. This example excludes the Pass point and does not include a line bet or Odds.
Three-stage progression
- Cycle 1: Put $54 across the five non-point box numbers. After two hits, call the bets off or down. Profit: $28–$36.
- Cycle 2: Repeat the same $54 entry on a later qualifying point. Cumulative collected wins: $56–$72 if both cycles finish.
- Cycle 3: Increase to $108 across excluding the point. Two hits pay $56–$72, then exit.
The original said the $108 third cycle uses only casino profit. That is not correct after two minimum-payout cycles: $56 of accumulated wins does not fund $108. The third entry still includes at least $36–$52 of the original bankroll unless more profit was collected.
Probability of the two-hit target
The five covered numbers have 21 combinations; 7 has six. Ignoring the point and other neutral totals, a covered hit arrives before 7 with probability 21/27. Two hits before 7 occur with probability (21/27)² = 60.49%.
That 60.49% figure assumes a repeat of the excluded point does not end the attempt. If the point repeating ends the cycle—as it normally ends the current Pass Line decision—the two-hit target must beat both the point’s three combinations and 7’s six combinations. The single-cycle probability is then (21/30)² = 49%. Write whether the bets come down, remain off through the come-out, or are rebuilt around a new point; otherwise the system has no single success rate.
| Cycle | Seven before a hit | One minimum-paying hit, then 7 | Two-hit completion |
|---|---|---|---|
| $54 level | −$54 | −$40 | +$28–$36 |
| $108 level | −$108 | −$80 | +$56–$72 |
One immediate loss at $108 can erase nearly four minimum $28 cycle wins ($108 ÷ $28 ≈ 3.86). At the $54 level, a minimum-paying hit wins $14; at the doubled $108 level, it wins $28. This is why one hit followed by 7 produces −$40 and −$80 respectively. The progression therefore increases recovery pressure even though the underlying Place-bet edges are unchanged.
- Define whether “off” or “down” ends the cycle; off bets remain on the layout.
- Define whether making the 4/10 point ends an unfinished two-hit attempt.
- Do not count the point itself as one of the covered hits.
- Reset to $54 after the third cycle regardless of outcome.
- Keep a line bet and Odds outside this accounting.
Review the basic Two Hits and Out system and the full Place-bet guide.
