Two Hits and Out Craps System: Rules and Probability
Across · Two box-number hits · All down · 64% target probability
Two Hits and Out covers the six box numbers, collects two wins, then removes every remaining bet. It is an exit rule—not a way to identify which shooter will deliver the required hits.
Two covered hits beat 7 about 64% of the time
The six box numbers have 24 combinations and 7 has six. Ignoring neutral totals, one covered hit arrives first with probability 24/30; two hits before 7 occur with probability (24/30)² = 64%.
A transparent $64-across version
| Numbers | Amount | Standard Place win |
|---|---|---|
| 4 and 10 | $10 each | $18 each |
| 5 and 9 | $10 each | $14 each |
| 6 and 8 | $12 each | $14 each |
| Total | $64 | Remove all bets after two wins |
- Wait for a point unless the Place bets are intentionally working on the come-out.
- Put $64 across, or use the table’s valid equivalent.
- Collect the first covered-number payout without pressing.
- Collect the second payout, then call “all down” before the dice are sent.
- Wait for the next chosen entry point; do not chase rolls missed while the bets are down.
Cycle results
| Sequence | Result before any line bet |
|---|---|
| 7 before a hit | −$64 |
| One $14 hit, then 7 | −$50 |
| One $18 hit, then 7 | −$46 |
| Two hits, then all down | +$28 to +$36 |
The 64% target probability explains why the system often produces small completed wins. The other 36% includes full and partial losses that are larger than one $28 minimum win. Frequent winning cycles do not by themselves create positive expectation.
See all six possible dollar outcomes
The $64 all-Place version has more than one winning amount. For fair independent dice, among covered hits, 4/10 accounts for 6 of 24 combinations and pays $18; the other 18 pay $14. Repeats count, and the bets remain at their original levels.
| Exit | Probability | Net result |
|---|---|---|
| 7 before any hit | 20% | −$64 |
| One $14 hit, then 7 | 12% | −$50 |
| One $18 hit, then 7 | 4% | −$46 |
| Two $14 hits; all down | 36% | +$28 |
| One $14 and one $18; all down | 24% | +$32 |
| Two $18 hits; all down | 4% | +$36 |
The six probabilities total 100%. For example, two minimum-paying hits have probability (18/30)² = 36%. The mixed winning row includes either order: 2 × (18/30) × (6/30) = 24%. Thus only 4% of complete attempts deliver the maximum $36 profit, even though 64% reach some winning exit.
This is a single-entry distribution, not a session forecast. It assumes all six positions are working on the counted rolls, no pressing and an accepted all-down instruction after hit two. A Buy substitution or removing a point changes both prices and probabilities. Use the Place payout guide to verify the six stakes before applying this table.
Buy 4/10 variant
The original instructed players to Buy 4 and 10. At $10, a Buy may pay $20 winning profit less commission rather than the $18 Place profit; its original stake remains unless taken down, but commission minimums, timing, and rounding differ. Use the quoted table payoff. If the point is excluded, the starting total and 24-combination calculation also change.
- State whether repeated hits on the same number count. In this version, they do.
- Keep line bets and Odds outside the two-hit accounting.
- Call bets down promptly; a late call may miss the betting cutoff.
- Do not re-enter because the shooter kept rolling after exit.
Keep the rack and the layout separate
Suppose the $64 layout earns one $14 win. The rack is up $14, but the full $64 remains exposed. If 7 arrives next, the completed cycle is $14 minus $64, or −$50. If a second $14 hit arrives and “all down” is accepted before the next roll, the $64 stake returns to the rack and the cycle closes at +$28.
Record the result only after the bets have actually been removed. Leaving the layout working after the second hit starts additional exposure and is no longer the two-hits-and-out rule described on this page.
Compare the two-hit $132 regression and the underlying Place-bet payouts.
A 64% completion rate still has negative expectation
In this all-Place $64 model, 7 arrives before the first covered hit with probability 20%. One hit followed by 7 occurs with probability 16%, and two hits complete the exit with probability 64%. A covered hit averages $15 profit: six combinations of 4/10 pay $18 and the other 18 box-number combinations pay $14, giving (6 × $18 + 18 × $14) ÷ 24.
The complete attempt averages 0.20 × (−$64) + 0.16 × ($15 − $64) + 0.64 × $30 = −$1.44. This assumes every shown wager works on counted rolls, repeats qualify, no pressing, no fees or line bets, and all down after the second hit. Changing Buy treatment, excluding a point or ending on a point repeat requires a new model. Frequent completed wins alone do not measure the price of the losing attempts.
