2410 Craps Method: Buy 4/10 Parlay Math
Buy 4 or 10 · Two consecutive decisions · Full parlay · Commission
The 2410 method tries to hit one chosen Buy 4 or Buy 10 twice before 7. After the first win, the entire $300 return from a $100 bet is parlayed into the second decision. Under the original upfront-commission assumptions, two wins produce $780 net profit—but occur only one time in nine.
The second decision is the system
A Buy 4/10 wins one decision in three because the number has three combinations and 7 has six. Requiring two consecutive wins gives (1/3)² = 11.11%. The full parlay creates the large payout and the sharp loss distribution.
Original $100 example, corrected
- Choose either 4 or 10 after a point is established.
- Buy it for $100 and pay a $5 upfront commission: $105 leaves the rack.
- If the number wins before 7, receive $200 profit plus the $100 stake: $300 returned.
- Buy the same number for $300 and pay a $15 upfront commission.
- If it wins again, receive $600 profit plus the $300 stake: $900 returned.
- Stop the cycle rather than pressing to a third decision.
Outcome table
| Path | Probability | Net result |
|---|---|---|
| First Buy loses to 7 | 2/3 = 66.67% | −$105 |
| First wins; $300 parlay loses | 2/9 = 22.22% | −$120 |
| Both Buy decisions win | 1/9 = 11.11% | +$780 |
The expected result is −$10 per complete attempt under these exact upfront 5% commissions: (2/3 × −$105) + (2/9 × −$120) + (1/9 × $780).
Commission timing changes the calculation
Many casinos charge Buy commission only on a win, which lowers the expected cost. Others round commissions or require minimums that matter greatly at the contributor’s actual $25 level. The method cannot be evaluated from “2 to 1” alone; record the commission, when it is charged, and the amount actually returned.
Why smaller chips do not scale cleanly
At $25, an exact 5% Buy commission is $1.25. A table that collects $1, $1.25, or $2 has changed the effective price, and the second-stage commission changes again if the full return is parlayed. That is why dividing every figure in the $100 example by four may produce the wrong result.
Before playing a smaller unit, write down the first wager, the commission actually collected, the amount returned after a win, the proposed second wager, and the second commission. If any one of those figures is unknown, the advertised cycle profit is not yet checkable.
Bankroll reality
A “25-shooter bankroll” is not a complete number. At the displayed $100 level, 25 independent first entries require $2,625 before any second-stage commission. At $25, commission rounding can make proportional scaling inaccurate. Decide the total loss limit in dollars, not shooters.
- A first win does not make the second win more likely.
- Keep the second $15 commission in the cycle accounting.
- Do not move past the table maximum or maximum payout.
- Do not treat one contributor’s successful sessions as evidence of advantage.
Check the full Buy-bet commission guide and table-limit guide before using any parlay.
The second commission must come from somewhere
Under the displayed upfront-fee rules, start with $500. The first $100 Buy plus $5 fee leaves $395 in the rack. A win returns $300, taking the rack to $695. Rebuying for $300 and paying $15 leaves $380. A second loss therefore leaves $380, which is $120 below the original $500 despite the first winning decision.
A second win returns $900 and finishes at $1,280, or $780 profit. If only $105 was available at the start, the $300 first return does not fund a $300 rebuy plus its $15 fee. Reducing the second stake changes the advertised method and requires new arithmetic. Decide whether the second fee comes from a reserved amount or a smaller parlay before beginning; never count money already committed to commission as part of the next wager.
