Craps Odds Explained: Probabilities, Payouts and Edge
Beginner craps odds guide · Reviewed August 18, 2026
“Craps odds” can mean four different things: the probability of a roll, the true odds against an event, the payout offered by the table, or the house edge created by the gap between them. Mixing those terms is how bad bets get dressed up as generous ones.
Quick answer
Pass and Come carry about a 1.41% edge. Don’t Pass and Don’t Come carry about a 1.36% edge under bar-12 rules. Taking or laying Odds pays true odds on that additional portion, but it adds money at risk and does not remove the flat bet’s expected loss.
Four meanings you must separate
| Term | Meaning | Example |
|---|---|---|
| Probability | Winning combinations divided by all relevant combinations | Seven: 6/36 = 16.67% on one roll |
| True odds | Losing possibilities compared with winning possibilities | Seven versus 10: 6 to 3 = 2 to 1 against 10 |
| Payout odds | Net amount the table pays on a win | Standard Place 10: 9 to 5 |
| House edge | Average expected loss divided by initial wager | Standard Place 10: 6.67% |
A high payout does not automatically mean good odds. It often accompanies a rare event, and the posted payoff may still be well below the fair price.
One-roll probabilities with two dice
| Total | Ways | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 2 or 12 | 1 each | 2.78% each |
| 3 or 11 | 2 each | 5.56% each |
| 4 or 10 | 3 each | 8.33% each |
| 5 or 9 | 4 each | 11.11% each |
| 6 or 8 | 5 each | 13.89% each |
| 7 | 6 | 16.67% |
See the complete ordered-combination table in the Craps Math hub.
Pass Line odds
Pass wins immediately on come-out 7 or 11, loses on 2, 3, or 12, and otherwise wins if the point repeats before seven. Combining every branch gives:
- Win: 244/495 = 49.293%
- Lose: 251/495 = 50.707%
- Flat-bet payout: even money
- House edge: 7/495 = 1.414%
Those are probabilities for a completed Pass Line cycle, not for the come-out roll alone. Read the full Pass Line rules and examples.
Don’t Pass odds and the bar-12 push
Under common bar-12 rules, Don’t Pass wins on come-out 2 or 3, loses on 7 or 11, pushes on 12, and after a point wins if seven appears before the point repeats.
| Result per initial wager | Exact probability | Percentage |
|---|---|---|
| Win | 949/1980 | 47.929% |
| Lose | 976/1980 | 49.293% |
| Push on 12 | 55/1980 | 2.778% |
The difference between win and loss produces a 1.364% house edge per initial wager. If pushes are excluded and only resolved bets are compared, the Don’t player wins 949/1925 = 49.299% of decisions. A previous version reversed these figures and omitted the push.
The flat Don’t Pass wager pays even money. Point-specific ratios such as laying 2 to win 1 belong to the additional Odds wager, not the flat bet. See the Don’t Pass guide.
Come and Don’t Come use the same math later
Come and Don’t Come apply their line-bet sequence to a roll made after the table point already exists. The next roll acts as that wager’s personal come-out. If a Come number travels to 4, 5, 6, 8, 9, or 10, it then competes with seven independently of the puck’s table point.
Because the outcome tree mirrors Pass and Don’t Pass, the flat Come edge is 1.414% and the flat Don’t Come edge is 1.364% under bar-12 rules. Multiple Come bets can be working on different numbers at once; each additional wager adds its own action and possible loss.
Taking and laying Odds
| Point | Taking Odds behind Pass/Come | Laying Odds behind Don’t |
|---|---|---|
| 4 or 10 | Win 2 to 1 | Lay 2 to win 1 |
| 5 or 9 | Win 3 to 2 | Lay 3 to win 2 |
| 6 or 8 | Win 6 to 5 | Lay 6 to win 5 |
These payouts match the true point-versus-seven ratios. The Odds portion has zero mathematical edge before chip rounding or unusual rules. It is not an independent side bet: it requires a live flat contract wager, and a larger Odds multiple creates larger dollar swings.
Place-bet odds by number
| Place number | Chance number beats 7 | Standard payout | House edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 or 10 | 3/9 = 33.33% | 9 to 5 | 6.67% |
| 5 or 9 | 4/10 = 40% | 7 to 5 | 4.00% |
| 6 or 8 | 5/11 = 45.45% | 7 to 6 | 1.52% |
The percentages are conditional on the wager reaching a decision: irrelevant totals leave it working. An older summary incorrectly reported a winning-probability range down to 9.09%; that number is the Big 6/8 house edge, not a Place-bet win probability.
Correct multiples matter. Standard Place 6/8 pays cleanly in $6 units; Place 5/9 and 4/10 pay cleanly in $5 units. A house may round an improper amount rather than paying a fraction.
Any 7: likely roll, expensive price
Seven is the most likely single total, with six winning combinations and 30 losing combinations. The true odds are therefore 30 to 6, or 5 to 1 against. A standard Any 7 win pays only 4 to 1.
- Six wins × $4 = $24.
- Thirty losses × $1 = $30.
- Expected loss across 36 $1 trials = $6.
- House edge = $6 ÷ $36 = 16.67%.
The wager hits more often than a one-number proposition, but its price is poor. See the Any 7 guide.
Field odds depend on the bonus squares
The Field wins on 16 of 36 combinations and loses on 20. The ordinary winners pay even money; the treatment of 2 and 12 determines the final price.
| 2 payout | 12 payout | House edge |
|---|---|---|
| 2 to 1 | 2 to 1 | 5.56% |
| 2 to 1 | 3 to 1 | 2.78% |
| 3 to 1 | 2 to 1 | 2.78% |
Do not copy a Field percentage from another casino without reading the two bonus squares. Some layouts use other rules.
Common wager comparison
| Wager under stated standard rules | Win condition | House edge |
|---|---|---|
| Don’t Pass / Don’t Come, bar 12 | Come-out rules, then 7 before point | 1.36% |
| Pass Line / Come | Come-out rules, then point before 7 | 1.41% |
| Place 6 or 8 | Number before 7 | 1.52% |
| Place 5 or 9 | Number before 7 | 4.00% |
| Field, both 2 and 12 pay double | 2, 3, 4, 9, 10, 11, 12 on next roll | 5.56% |
| Place 4 or 10 at 9:5 | Number before 7 | 6.67% |
| Big 6 or Big 8 | Number before 7 | 9.09% |
| Any Craps at 7:1 | 2, 3, or 12 on next roll | 11.11% |
| Any 7 at 4:1 | 7 on next roll | 16.67% |
Field payouts, Buy/Lay commission timing, bonus bets, and maximum Odds vary by table. Compare the posted rule rather than assuming every layout matches this table.
Three mistakes behind most odds confusion
- Calling a payout “the odds.” State whether a number is true odds, payout odds, or odds against winning.
- Dropping the push. Don’t Pass percentages change depending on whether bar-12 pushes remain in the denominator.
- Assuming the past changes the next roll. A cold or hot label describes prior outcomes; it does not alter fair-dice probabilities.
Frequently asked questions
Is the most likely roll always the best bet?
No. Any 7 covers the most likely total but pays less than true odds, producing a 16.67% edge.
Do Odds bets improve the chance the flat bet wins?
No. They add a true-odds payoff to the same point-versus-seven event. Probability is unchanged.
Why does Don’t Pass show less than a 50% win rate but still beat Pass on edge?
Because 12 pushes. When measured per initial wager, wins, losses, and pushes all matter. Among only resolved Don’t bets, the player still loses slightly more often than winning.
Are payout rules universal?
No. Field bonuses, Buy/Lay commission timing, bonus bets, maximum Odds, and chip rounding vary. Treat every edge as conditional on its stated paytable.
Source and calculation notes
- Massachusetts Gaming Commission: Craps and Mini-Craps rules
- All percentages were independently recomputed from the 36 ordered dice outcomes and the stated standard payouts.
