All baccarat players will tell you that runs are a key to success at the game. What are runs in baccarat? They are extended groups of wins by the Player or the Bank. In other words, one of the choices wins multiple hands in a row.
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Think about the result in a game of baccarat that does not involve ties. The chances on each individual hand are 50-50. That does not change for each individual hand no matter how many times a result has appeared previously. But, there are rare occurrences where a certain result happens in a run.
A Discussion of Baccarat Runs and Odds
Let’s speak for a moment about the odds of a result becoming a run. At first appearance they are daunting. A run of 15 results in a row happens about once in every 32,000 tries. It also happens about once in every 537 shoes in a live game. That doesn’t sound too encouraging.
How would you even begin to fashion a bet on something that happens so infrequently? You would have to play a lot of hands of baccarat to make such a bet worthwhile. Each hand of baccarat works like a coin flip when you consider the hands independently. But we are looking here at the bigger picture.
If you are playing live, you need to focus on the chances of a run happening within a single shoe. Once the cards are shuffled and placed in the shoe, the results of that shoe have essentially been predetermined. Nothing will change how the cards come out. This is why runs in baccarat happen more often in a live casino environment.
But what about playing baccarat online? Would the same be true? No, because there is no shoe used online. When baccarat is played online there is a fresh hand each time. This means that the cards are shuffled after each hand. This makes it less likely that extended runs will occur and that a random result will happen.
Many live casinos are now making the switch to automatic shufflers so that the cards can be shuffled after each hand.
How Runs in Baccarat Can Be Spotted
Baccarat is one of the few games in a casino that offers opportunities for record keeping. Roulette is another. Players can actually benefit from tracking the results of a baccarat game and making bets with this information.
This is so popular among players that most live casinos provide free paper and pencils to players who want to track their results. It is made even easier by some live games which provide a video screen which displays the results of the most recent hands. All you need to do is look at the screen to see if a certain result is happening more often than another.
The only way that runs in baccarat can be spotted is by tracking the results of hands. It doesn’t really matter how you do it. How you track hands is a matter of personal preference. However, we have examples on this site of effective baccarat scorecards that you might want to use as an example. If they have been successful for someone else, maybe they will be successful for you.
How Many Wins Constitutes a Run?
Here’s an important question. How many results do we need to see before we are able to qualify something as a run? Is three wins in a row enough? Five? The answer is subjective.
When you look at a baccarat scoreboard you will probably begin to see a run begin to emerge long before you can confirm it. Let’s say you are betting on the Bank and notice the Bank has won three hands in a row. This is broken by a Player win and then followed by two more Bank wins. Is this a run?
Maybe. The truth will come out with more play. In any given game of baccarat it is common to see two and three card runs, but these are of little real value to the player. What you want to see are the runs of 7, 8, or 9 hands in row. That is when you will have an opportunity to score a profit at the game.
The Danger of Relying on Runs in Baccarat
We have to stress that baccarat is a game of chance. No matter how many runs that you may encounter in the game, you are still basically dealing with a coin flip. If you just try to rely on runs and don’t consider things like money management and other strategies, you will not be successful. In short, it takes a good deal of luck to beat this game.
This is why baccarat has a certain appeal for high rolling gamblers. They love action and want to make bets on each and every hand. Some of them lose vast sums of money. Remember going in that there is always the chance that you will lose heavily. It also pays to remember that no matter what happened in your last session, there is no guarantee that the same result will happen again.
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