Four Hits for One Point: Craps Progression Math
Contributor system · Place 6/8 · Full press · Four-hit probability
Black Magic’s “Four Hits for One Point” starts with a $6 Place 6 or 8 and aggressively presses toward $66. Four wins before 7 produce a large payout from limited new cash, but the target is reached only about 4.27% of attempts under the exact rules.
Four-hit sequence and cash flow
The four-hit sequence reaches $133 net profit if completed. It requires up to $11 of outside cash, and four number-before-7 decisions succeed only about 4.27% of the time. Neutral rolls can occur between hits; they do not move the progression forward.
| Stage | Action | Rack retained | Total outside cash used |
|---|---|---|---|
| Start | $6 Place 6 | $0 | $6 |
| Hit 1 | Win $7; press $6 to $12 | $1 | $6 |
| Hit 2 | Win $14; add $4; press $12 to $30 | $1 | $10 |
| Hit 3 | Win $35; add $1; press $30 to $66 | $1 | $11 |
| Hit 4 | Win $77; remove the $66 bet | $144 total | $11 |
After the fourth hit, $77 payout plus the returned $66 bet plus the earlier $1 in the rack equals $144. Subtract the $11 supplied by the player and the net profit is $133.
Every stopping result
| 7 arrives… | Net result |
|---|---|
| Before any 6 | −$6 |
| After one 6 | −$5 |
| After two 6s | −$9 |
| After three 6s | −$10 |
| After four 6s; player exits | +$133 |
The actual chance of four hits
There are five combinations for 6 and six for 7. Ignoring neutral totals, one 6-before-7 decision succeeds 5/11 of the time. Four in succession is (5/11)4, approximately 4.27%—about one target completion per 23.4 attempts on average, not one in ten.
Weighting all five stopping results gives an expected result of approximately −$0.36 per attempt. That is consistent with repeatedly exposing Place 6 to its 1.515% house edge at changing stake sizes.
What “one point” must mean
The system does not depend on the shooter making a point. It needs four rolls of the chosen 6 or 8 before 7 while the bet is working. A made point does not normally remove a Place bet, but the wager may be off on the next come-out unless called working. Decide whether the count continues across point cycles and confirm working status.
What an early take-down actually pays
The stopping table describes what happens if 7 takes the working wager. A player may instead ask to remove a Place bet between rolls. After the first 6, taking down the $12 bet and keeping the $1 already racked returns $13 against $6 supplied, a $7 profit. After the second 6, taking down $30 plus the $1 rack returns $31 against $10 supplied, a $21 profit. After the third 6, taking down $66 plus the $1 rack returns $67 against $11 supplied, a $56 profit.
Those are completed Place-bet cycle totals, not additional payouts from the dealer. Leaving the $66 working instead risks that entire stake to seek the fourth $77 win and the advertised $133 net result. Decide at which checkpoint to collect, and include any separate Pass Line or Odds position when judging the whole table.
The fourth-hit checkpoint
After the third 6, the progression has $66 on the layout, $1 retained in the rack, and $11 of the player’s outside cash committed. From that checkpoint, a 6 appears before 7 with probability 5/11 and pays $77; a 7 appears first with probability 6/11 and loses the $66 wager.
This final decision carries most of the visible swing. Calling the earlier wins a locked profit would ignore the chips still exposed. Before starting, decide whether the goal is to complete all four hits or to collect or regress at an earlier checkpoint.
Stopping after the third hit leaves $66 exposed and only $1 racked against $11 contributed, so it is not a locked profit. If the goal is to reduce risk, collect or regress instead of assuming 7 is “lurking.” See the Place bet rules and progressive betting guide.
