Four Hits for One Point: Craps Progression Math
Contributor system · Place 6/8 · Full press · Four-hit probability
Black Magic’s “Four Hits for One Point” starts with a $6 Place 6 or 8 and aggressively presses toward $66. Four wins before 7 produce a large payout from limited new cash, but the target is reached only about 4.27% of attempts under the exact rules.
The corrected sequence
The original arithmetic reaches the advertised $133 net profit, but maximum outside cash is $11—not $10—and a 90% loss assumption badly understates how rarely four consecutive number-before-7 decisions succeed.
| Stage | Action | Rack retained | Total outside cash used |
|---|---|---|---|
| Start | $6 Place 6 | $0 | $6 |
| Hit 1 | Win $7; press $6 to $12 | $1 | $6 |
| Hit 2 | Win $14; add $4; press $12 to $30 | $1 | $10 |
| Hit 3 | Win $35; add $1; press $30 to $66 | $1 | $11 |
| Hit 4 | Win $77; remove the $66 bet | $144 total | $11 |
After the fourth hit, $77 payout plus the returned $66 bet plus the earlier $1 in the rack equals $144. Subtract the $11 supplied by the player and the net profit is $133.
Every stopping result
| 7 arrives… | Net result |
|---|---|
| Before any 6 | −$6 |
| After one 6 | −$5 |
| After two 6s | −$9 |
| After three 6s | −$10 |
| After four 6s; player exits | +$133 |
The actual chance of four hits
There are five combinations for 6 and six for 7. Ignoring neutral totals, one 6-before-7 decision succeeds 5/11 of the time. Four in succession is (5/11)4, approximately 4.27%—about one target completion per 23.4 attempts on average, not one in ten.
Weighting all five stopping results gives an expected result of approximately −$0.36 per attempt. That is consistent with repeatedly exposing Place 6 to its 1.515% house edge at changing stake sizes.
What “one point” must mean
The system does not depend on the shooter making a point. It needs four rolls of the chosen 6 or 8 before 7 while the bet is working. A made point does not normally remove a Place bet, but the wager may be off on the next come-out unless called working. Decide whether the count continues across point cycles and confirm working status.
The fourth-hit checkpoint
After the third 6, the progression has $66 on the layout, $1 retained in the rack, and $11 of the player’s outside cash committed. From that checkpoint, a 6 appears before 7 with probability 5/11 and pays $77; a 7 appears first with probability 6/11 and loses the $66 wager.
This final decision carries most of the visible swing. Calling the earlier wins a locked profit would ignore the chips still exposed. Before starting, decide whether the goal is to complete all four hits or to collect or regress at an earlier checkpoint.
Stopping after the third hit leaves $66 exposed and only $1 racked against $11 contributed, so it is not a locked profit. If the goal is to reduce risk, collect or regress instead of assuming 7 is “lurking.” See the Place bet rules and progressive betting guide.
