CrapsPit.org http://www.crapspit.org Learn to play Craps Fri, 17 Feb 2017 17:29:00 +0000 en-US hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=4.7.2 Casino Cheats and Thieves: The Simpler the Better http://www.crapspit.org/casino-cheats-thieves/ http://www.crapspit.org/casino-cheats-thieves/#respond Fri, 07 Oct 2016 16:51:56 +0000 http://www.crapspit.org/?p=9079 Casino theft is still a big problem, even with today’s sophisticated surveillance equipment and techniques.  The three biggest thorns poking at the casinos are theft by casino insiders, theft by customers who snatch-and-run, and cheaters at table games, especially the craps tables. Surprisingly, the simplest rip-offs are the most difficult to spot and prevent.  In 2015, the Gaming Control Board ... Read More

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casino-cheatCasino theft is still a big problem, even with today’s sophisticated surveillance equipment and techniques.  The three biggest thorns poking at the casinos are theft by casino insiders, theft by customers who snatch-and-run, and cheaters at table games, especially the craps tables.

Surprisingly, the simplest rip-offs are the most difficult to spot and prevent.  In 2015, the Gaming Control Board of Nevada accepted 574 settlement cases involving $51,800,000 and made more than 600 arrests. (Source).  During a presentation to numerous casino managers at the Global Gaming Exposition, a high-ranking official from the Gaming Control Board indicated that casino theft and cheating happens at all levels of operations.  He said you have to watch everyone, even management personnel.  No one is exempt from being scrutinized because the thief can be anyone.  The moment you let your guard down and think someone is incapable of theft or cheating is the moment you get stung.  He said the number of arrests for theft by casino workers is between 250 and 500 per year, which is 25% of all annual Gaming Control Board arrests.  Of the arrests involving casino workers, 27% are table crew personnel, 18% are money handlers in the casino cage, and 3% are security personnel.  What’s worse is that 23% of those arrests are of management personnel.

Think about that for a moment.  If 500 arrests of casino workers are made each year and 3% of them are of security personnel, then that means 15 people who are supposed to be protecting the casino from theft are the thieves themselves.  And 115 of those annual arrests are of people who are supposed to be managing the casino and looking out for the casino’s best interests.  Outsiders (non-casino personnel) are the bulk of the offenders.

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The hardest ones to catch are those who use the simplest methods.  Card games are vulnerable to the simple art of “card marking” where the cheater surreptitiously marks certain cards with ink that’s invisible to the naked eye but shows up when looking through special glasses.  Then there’s the simple snatch-and-run thief who is the hardest to catch of all casino thieves.

One particular snatch-and-runner is documented on surveillance video from multiple casinos as having stolen more than $200,000.  Video surveillance personnel oftentimes see his crimes as they occur, but the offender is so quick that he’s out the door and lost in the crowd before anything can be done.  All the casinos can do is log the offender in the so-called “Black Book,” which is a record of cheats and thieves with pictures to help casinos identify them before they can commit their crimes.  The criminals know the book exists, but they’re willing to take the risk anyway because the reward is so great.

Although simpler is usually better when it comes to stealing from a casino, the Control Board official said that most criminals aren’t so obvious with their techniques.  He indicated that the craps table is where thieves find it relatively easy to steal because craps is the most difficult of all games to monitor.  Dealers deal directly with players and chips are moving everywhere, especially on a crowded table.  The boxman can only look in one direction at a time, which provides plenty of opportunities for crooked dealers and players to steal.  Switching dice occurs more often than you might think.  A craps player skilled at palming dice can introduce a set of crooked dice, roll them, take the winnings, and then replace the genuine dice without anyone ever knowing.  Another common way thieves steal is to slyly sneak chips off the table.  This can be done by a dealer, a player, or a dealer-player team.  Dealer cheats have been caught slipping chips into various parts of their uniforms, such as their ties and vests.

A common maneuver that a player cheat makes is sneaking a chip from the player next to them when that player shoots the dice.  If the shooter doesn’t protect his chip stack with his non-throwing hand, the thief has a golden opportunity to steal. The shooter usually leans forward when rolling the dice, and everyone at the table, including the dealers, tend to watch the dice as they fly to the other end of the table.  In that instant when the shooter is leaning forward and everyone is watching the craps dice, the thief also leans forward to help hide his hand as he quickly reaches to lift a chip from the end of the shooters chip stack.

That’s why you should get into the habit of always covering your chips with your non-throwing hand when you’re the shooter.  When playing craps, the best way to deter a thief from making you his target is to put some $1 chips on the outer ends of your stack, and the larger denominations in the interior of your stack.  It’s much more difficult to lift a chip from the middle of your stack than it is from the end of the stack.

A dealer-player team at the craps table is also a big threat to the casino.  Their typical method is for the dealer to overpay a winning roll.  If the dealer sees the boxman focused on an issue at the other end of the table, the dealer sneaks an extra chip when paying the player.  Most of the time, overpayments are honest mistakes that the boxman usually catches.  But you never know when an over-payment might be intentional between the player and dealer.

It’s hard to catch a craps dealer who’s skilled at cheating, but the inexperienced dealer who’s trying to cheat is oftentimes easy to spot.  For example, if a dealer appears fidgety and constantly looking at the boxman or floor supervisor, it’s usually because of one of two things: the dealer is nervous about being seen as a weak dealer making honest mistakes (he’s fearful of losing his job), or he’s looking for an opportunity to cheat.  As the saying goes, “The only reason a craps dealer should be looking at a supervisor is to see if they’re looking at him.”  So, the next time you see a craps dealer seemingly more interested in watching the supervisors than he is in watching the table, you’ll know he’s likely either worried about being seen as a weak dealer or he’s looking for an opportunity to cheat the casino!

If you are into online casino, check our some of the online casinos reviewed.

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casino instructed staff to give customer $5,000 and not document the deal http://www.crapspit.org/casino-instructed-staff-to-give-customer-5000/ http://www.crapspit.org/casino-instructed-staff-to-give-customer-5000/#respond Sun, 25 Sep 2016 23:43:27 +0000 http://www.crapspit.org/?p=9066 I saw an interesting news story recently.  I don’t know how true it may be, but it caught my eye so I thought I’d share it with you.  According to the news story, a complaint was filed by the Nevada Gaming Control Board against a well-known Downtown Las Vegas casino.  (Note: Names are withheld to protect the Crapspit.  Also, all ... Read More

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golden-gate-casino-las-vegasI saw an interesting news story recently.  I don’t know how true it may be, but it caught my eye so I thought I’d share it with you.  According to the news story, a complaint was filed by the Nevada Gaming Control Board against a well-known Downtown Las Vegas casino.  (Note: Names are withheld to protect the Crapspit.  Also, all information in this article is based on the content of the news story.)  The complaint alleges that a casino owner instructed staff to give a mystery customer $5,000 and not document the deal in its accounting system.  According to the news story, the casino doesn’t deny the allegation but it does claim that the incident was a simple mistake in the record-keeping process.  One of the casino’s major owners allegedly indicated that he didn’t know the customer failed to sign a $5,000 credit marker at the craps table.  In the same complaint, a sister casino is alleged to have given $25,000 in credit to a different customer with no credit check, even though a credit check is required by state rules.  The same casino owner allegedly indicated that the unidentified international customer did, indeed, have a $25,000 credit account, but casino personnel didn’t complete the proper paperwork when doing the credit check.  The owner allegedly insists that both mistakes were honest.

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According to the news story and the complaint, here’s how the $5,000 incident purportedly went down.  The casino owner met an anonymous guy at one of the casino’s bars, and then told one of the casino hosts to provide the mystery guy with $5,000, but to do it without a documented paper record.  The casino host then conveyed the order to one of the shift managers.  The shift manager then told a boxman at one of the craps tables to provide chips worth $5,000 to the mystery guy.  The boxman followed casino procedures and declined to provide the $5,000 because the mystery guy didn’t have a credit account for markers and he didn’t have any documented history of his table play.  (Kudos to the boxman for strictly adhering to established casino processes and procedures.)  Since the boxman stuck to his guns and rejected the order to provide the chips, the shift manager allegedly told the boxman to leave the craps table and go to one of the wheel tables and close it.  Once closed to other patrons, the shift manager took control of the wheel table.

Apparently, at this point, the boxman walked away, leaving the shift manager and a dealer at the wheel table with the owner and the mystery guy.  The shift manager allegedly counted out chips worth $5,000 and then pushed them to the dealer.  The dealer then pushed them to the mystery guy, who picked them up.  The mystery guy and owner then left the table, according to the news story and complaint.  The boxman later came back to the wheel table and observed that there was no paper record of the transaction (i.e., there wasn’t a marker).  It was later observed that no account for credit had been established either, according to the news story and complaint.  The complaint indicates an investigation verified that a documented record was not created.  Another report indicated a $5,254 casino loss occurred at that table one day prior to when the marker for $5,000 was purportedly issued.  The news story and complaint also indicate that 14 days after the deal, $5,000 from the same mystery guy was received by the casino without any documented record.  The owner will have an opportunity to dispute the complaint.

It’s interesting how a Las Vegas casino could allow itself to get into such a position with the state Gaming Control Board.  Obviously, we at the Crapspit know nothing about the mystery customer (i.e., who he is or his relationship with the casino, or more specifically, with that particular owner).  Why would a major Downtown Las Vegas casino risk to any degree its gaming license and reputation for a measly few thousand dollars?  Interesting.  We’ll be watching for follow-up news stories to see how it all shakes out.

DISCLAIMER
All information in this article is based on the content of the news story.  The Crapspit cannot and does not verify the truth or accuracy to any degree of the information contained in this article.  Therefore, names of the persons and casinos mentioned in this article are omitted.

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Can you lose your come bets between points if they're off? http://www.crapspit.org/can-lose-come-bets-points-theyre-off/ http://www.crapspit.org/can-lose-come-bets-points-theyre-off/#comments Wed, 22 Jun 2016 22:17:06 +0000 http://www.crapspit.org/?p=9035 We received the following question “Can you lose your come bets between points if they’re off?” on our article about Come Bets.  Here is our reply in regards to the question that the reader posted. Please refer to our article on Come Bets (paragraph 10) for an explanation. If you have a Come bet and the shooter rolls the point ... Read More

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We received the following question “Can you lose your come bets between points if they’re off?” on our article about Come Bets.  Here is our reply in regards to the question that the reader posted.

Please refer to our article on Come Bets (paragraph 10) for an explanation. If you have a Come bet and the shooter rolls the point to end the game, the Flat portion of your Come bet remains working. You cannot turn off or take down the Flat portion of your Come bet at any time (if needed, refer to our articles on the Pass Line and Flat bets for an explanation of “Flat bets”).

However, if you have Odds on your Come, then you can turn off the Odds portion if you want. Remember, the Come bet is basically the same as a Pass Line bet, so once you make a Flat Come bet, it must remain up and working on every subsequent roll until a decision is made for that Come bet.

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Also remember from our article on the Pass Line, “For the Pass Line bet, the come-out roll favors the player but then shifts to the house when a point is established. Therefore, for a Pass Line bet, the price for getting an advantage on the come‑out roll is that you can’t remove the Flat bet once a point is established and the advantage swings to the house. Again, once a point is established, you must leave your Flat Pass Line bet alone until a win/lose decision is made.” That rule for the Flat Pass Line bet holds true for the Flat Come bet.

As noted in our Come bet article, most casinos automatically turn off the Odds portion of your Come bet on the come-out roll of a new game. If you’re unsure of the casino’s rules, then if the shooter rolls the point to end the game, you should immediately ask the dealer, “Are my Come odds automatically off on the come-out?” He’ll most likely respond, “Yessir!” When the Come Odds are automatically off on the come-out roll of a new game (as is the case in most casinos), there’s no need for the dealer to place the small “Off” button on your Odds portion because everyone (i.e., you, the dealers, the boxman, and the camera) knows the Odds portion is automatically off; however, if you want your Come Odds working on the come-out roll of a new game, simply tell the dealer and he’ll make your Odds portion on and working.

Once the shooter establishes a new point, it’s understood that your Odds portion is then turned back on and working; therefore, if you want your Odds portion to remain off for some reason (e.g., your wife walks up to the table to nag you about going to dinner and, as a result, you can’t concentrate on the game), then you must tell the dealer, “Leave my Come odds off, please” (i.e., you have to physically tell the dealer to leave your Odds portion off).

In summary, as with a Flat Pass Line bet, once you make a Flat Come bet and the Come point is established, your Flat Come bet cannot be turned off or taken down at any time. But you can turn off or take down the Odds portion of your Come bet whenever you want.

For example, suppose the shooter rolls 6 as the point for a new game. You then immediately make a $5 Flat Come bet and the shooter’s next roll is 9. Your Come point is now 9, so you drop $10 and tell the dealer, “$10 Odds on my 9 Come, please.” The shooter then rolls a 6 to make his point and end the game. Now, for the come-out roll of a new game, your Flat Come bet remains on (you cannot turn it off), but the Odds portion of your Come bet is automatically off (unless you tell the dealer to leave the Odds portion on) (for this simple example, let’s assume you leave the Come Odds off). The shooter then rolls a 7. Your $5 Flat Come bet loses, but you don’t lose the $10 Odds portion because they were automatically off. The dealer then keeps the $5 Flat Come bet and he returns the $10 Odds portion to you.

Hope that helps, and good luck at the tables!

If you have more questions, please don’t hesitate to post again below.

Author
Written by John Nelsen in partnership with the team of craps pros at crapspit.org.

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Does the Place Bet in Craps pay more? http://www.crapspit.org/does-place-bet-pay-more/ http://www.crapspit.org/does-place-bet-pay-more/#comments Tue, 26 Jan 2016 22:23:09 +0000 http://www.crapspit.org/?p=8728 Hi, Jeff, thanks for your post. We don’t think we correctly understand your question, but we’ll give it a try. Let’s break down your post and address it in pieces, and maybe that will give you the info you’re looking for. Your statement, “…if you play the odds in craps you should never bet less than five times odds because ... Read More

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readerquestion


Hi, Jeff, thanks for your post.

We don’t think we correctly understand your question, but we’ll give it a try. Let’s break down your post and address it in pieces, and maybe that will give you the info you’re looking for.

Your statement, “…if you play the odds in craps you should never bet less than five times odds because you will get paid more on a place bet of the same amount. For example, I was told that a Place bet of $30 on a 6 or 8 pays $35, while an odds bet of $25 pays $35 also including the flat bet.” Jeff, your second sentence contradicts your first sentence. In both cases, the total bet amount is $30 and the total win amount is $35, so the $30 Place bet doesn’t “pay more” than the $5 Pass Line with 5x Odds (your first sentence states the Place bet pays more, while your second sentence states they both pay the same). So, we’re confused about what you’re stating. Let’s look at the 6 and 8. For a $5 Pass Line bet plus $25 Odds (5x odds), you win $5 for the $5 flat bet and you win $30 for the Odds bet (total win = $35); and a $30 Place bet wins $35 (total win = $35). Therefore, in this case when both total bet amounts are $30 and both net win amounts are $35, your statement, “…you will get paid more on a Place bet of the same amount,” is false.

Assuming your Odds bets and Place bets are made according to their payoff odds (i.e., for the 6 and 8, the Odds bet should be a multiple of 5, and the Place bet should be a multiple of 6), the comparison is as follows:

  • (1x odds) $5 Pass Line with $5 Odds = $10 total bet amount = $11 total bet win.
  • (2x odds) $5 Pass Line with $10 Odds = $15 total bet amount = $17 total bet win.
  • (3x odds) $5 Pass Line with $15 Odds = $20 total bet amount = $23 total bet win.
  • (4x odds) $5 Pass Line with $20 Odds = $25 total bet amount =$29 total bet win.
  • (5x odds) $5 Pass Line with $25 Odds = $30 total bet amount = $35 total bet win.
  • $6 Place bet = $6 total bet amount = $7 total bet win.
  • $12 Place bet = $12 total bet amount = $14 total bet win.
  • $18 Place be t= $18 total bet amount = $21 total bet win.
  • $24 Place bet = $24 total bet amount = $28 total bet win.
  • $30 Place bet = $30 total bet amount = $35 total bet win.

Based strictly on what you wrote, you’re not comparing apples to apples. First of all, the amounts risked and won for the two bets aren’t the “same amount.” For example, for a Pass with 2x Odds bet, you risk $15 to win $17; whereas, for a Place bet, you risk $12 to win $14. None of those numbers are the “same amount.” Secondly, it seems that you’re ignoring the money you win on a Pass Line bet when naturals appear (there are 8 ways to win versus 4 ways to lose on the come-out roll). Therefore, your statement, “…never bet less than five times odds because you will get paid more on a Place bet of the same amount,” is fundamentally flawed. You can make close comparisons, but they’re not equal apples-to-apples comparisons, and you can’t ignore your winnings for the Pass Line when naturals appear on the come-out.

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Your friend’s theory is a little more convincing (but still flawed) when considering the 4 and 10. Assuming your Odds bets and Place bets are made according to their payoff odds (i.e., for the 4 and 10, the Place bet should be a multiple of 5 and let’s assume, for comparison purposes, that your Odds bet is also a multiple of 5), the comparison is as follows:

  • (1x odds) $5 Pass Line with $5 Odds = $10 total bet amount = $15 total bet win.
  • (2x odds) $5 Pass Line with $10 Odds = $15 total bet amount = $25 total bet win..
  • (3x odds) $5 Pass Line with $15 Odds = $20 total bet amount = $35 total bet win.
  • (4x odds) $5 Pass Line with $20 Odds = $25 total bet amount =$45 total bet win.
  • (5x odds) $5 Pass Line with $25 Odds = $30 total bet amount = $55 total bet win.
  • $5 Place bet = $5 total bet amount = $9 total bet win.
  • xxxxx.
  • $10 Place bet = $10 total bet amount = $18 total bet win.
  • $15 Place be t= $15 total bet amount = $27 total bet win.
  • $20 Place bet = $20 total bet amount = $36 total bet win.
  • $25 Place bet = $25 total bet amount = $45 total bet win.

In this case, it appears from looking at the numbers above that your friend’s theory has some merit. For example, for a Pass with 2x Odds, you risk $15 to win $25; whereas, for a Place bet, you risk $15 to win $27. However, once again, the theory ignores the winnings for the Pass Line when naturals appear on the come-out. You can’t disregard those winnings when making the comparison.

NOTE: You should never make a $25 Place bet on the 4 and 10, and the 5 and 9. Instead, as you’ll learn when you study the material on our website, you should always Buy the 4 and 10 for $25, and you should always Buy the 5 and 9 for $24 instead of Placing it for $25. Most casinos don’t allow you to Buy the 4 and 10 unless you bet at least $20 or $25, but some do allow you to Buy them for as little as $10. As the casino permits, you should always Buy the 4 and 10 when betting $10 or more instead of Placing them. For example, Buying the 4 for $10 is a net win of $19 ($20 win minus the $1 vig); whereas, Placing the 4 for $10 is a net win of only $18. For the same $10 risk, you can win $19 with a Buy instead of only $18 with a Place. Another example, why would you Place the 4 for $25 to win $45 when you can Buy the 4 for $25 to win a net $49 ($50 win minus the $1 vig)? For the same $25 at risk, wouldn’t you rather win $49 instead of only $45? This is all explained in detail on our website. So, forget Place bets on the 4, 10, 5, and 9 when you get to the $25 level or more. Instead, make Buy bets.

Your statement, “I do like the added benefit of hitting a seven or eleven while going up but is it really a benefit when the 7 wipes you out.” We assume you’re talking about a come-out roll and Odds bets that are made with a Pass Line bet. On the come-out roll, the Pass Line doesn’t have any Odds yet because a point has not yet been established (you take Odds on the point after the come-out roll when a point has been established). Remember, there are 8 ways to win the flat Pass Line versus only 4 ways to lose, so the flat Pass Line bet on the come-out roll is a good thing. On the come-out, the 7 and 11 are winners, so a 7 can’t “wipe you out” on the Pass Line because you haven’t taken Odds yet. In terms of the Place bet, if you have Place bets on the table and the shooter makes the point, the Place bets are then generally off on the subsequent come-out roll (i.e., most casinos automatically call Place bets off on the come-out roll unless you specifically tell them your Place bets are on and working on the come-out). So, with Place bets, a 7 on the come-out roll doesn’t “wipe you out” either unless you’ve told the casino to turn your Place bets on and working on the come-out roll. So, in both cases on a come-out roll, a 7 doesn’t “wipe you out.” Then, after the come-out roll when a point has been established, a 7 will, indeed, “wipe you out” for both the Pass Line with Odds bet and the Place bet. But your statement seems to focus on the come-out roll, so we’re confused. Then, we get confused even more with your sentence, “I understand that you get the added benefit of winning on the come bet while making the bet through the come this way…,” which sounds like you’ve switched gears in mid-stream to talk about Come bets and their odds.

Next, we don’t understand your statement, “Since I have to hit the 6 or 8 twice to get the same payoff as a Place bet….” We can’t address that statement because we just don’t understand it at all as it makes no mathematical sense. You’re welcome to clarify your post and then we’ll try again to address it.

In summary, either: (1) we misunderstand your question (which could very well be the case, so you’re welcome to post again to clarify your question), or (2) you misunderstood your friend, or (3) your friend doesn’t understand the game as well as he thinks. Although we don’t understand your post, we suspect that option #3 is the answer (i.e., your friend doesn’t know what he’s talking about). The Pass Line taking Odds (and Don’t Pass laying Odds) is the best bet on the craps table in terms of lowest house advantage. It has a lower house advantage than the Place bets. No amount of wacky variations in betting patterns or betting amounts is going to give you an advantage. The Pass Line with Odds is always going to be a lower house advantage than the Place bets, no matter how much you bet. The house advantage for the Pass with Odds is at least as good as 0.85% (that’s for 1x odds, and the house advantage gets a little less the more odds you take), while the house advantage for the Place 6 or 8 is always about 1.52%. Increasing your bet amounts doesn’t give you an advantage. It simply makes you lose your money faster. Read and study the material on our website. Then, after you’ve learned the game properly and correctly, test your new knowledge at your favorite online craps casino at the lowest limit allowed (e.g., a $1 table is a good place to practice using your new knowledge before trying a live table).


crapsquestions


Hi Jeff,

Thanks for the clarification. Now it makes sense and we understand your question.

With a Place bet, it’s an immediate bet on the 6. With a Come bet, you have no idea whether the Come point is going to be a 6, 8, 5, 9, 4, or 10. More on that in a second. You’re giving more advantage to the casino by making Place bets than making Come bets with Odds. You double the casino advantage by making a Place bet instead of a Come bet with Odds. At 5x odds, the house advantage for the Come bet is about 0.8%; whereas, the house advantage for a Place bet is about 1.5%. Why double the casino’s advantage? The only reason to do so is if you like the number 6 and want to bet it immediately. If you like the 6 or 8, the problem with a Come bet is that you don’t know what the Come point will be. If you like the 6 and want to bet it, you might have to wait an hour before the 6 is hit on a Come bet’s come-out roll to establish the 6 as the Come point. We don’t see how you can make a legitimate comparison between (1) a Come bet with the off chance of hitting a 6 or 8 as the Come point and (2) making an immediate Place 6 or 8 bet. For a Place 6 bet, you get the 6 immediately. For a Come bet, the 6 may not hit all night long as the Come point. How can those two bets be legitimately compared in your scenario? If your Come bet were guaranteed to have 6 or 8 as the Come point, then your question would be worth consideration. But the Come point is not guaranteed to be 6 or 8, so it’s fruitless comparison.

If you have the discipline to stick to the best bets on the table in terms of house advantage, then stick to the Pass Line, Don’t Pass, Come, and/or Don’t Come. Your bankroll and nerve (as well as the table limits) will determine the amount of odds you take or lay. If you’re an average player who buys in for $100 at a $5 table, you’ll be a solid rock at the table if you stick to $5 Pass Line with 2x odds. However, doing nothing but that all night long can get boring, especially after a few beers. We have other material on our site that describes a system we like to use that maintains your solid play but adds more excitement and fun. Take a look at it and consider it the next time you play. Better yet, before trying it at a live table, experiment at a low-limit online table (e.g., a $1 online table) to see if it gives you the added excitement that it does for us.

If you want to make Place bets on the 6 or 8, then you’re not giving up much to the casino, since the house advantage is only about 1.5%. In a game of craps, if you can stick to making Place 6 and 8 bets, then you’ll still be a solid player. After the Pass, Don’t Pass, Come, and Don’t Come, the Place 6 or 8 is the best bet on the table in terms of house advantage. If your bankroll is a concern, then make $6 Place bets on a $5 table, or $12 bets on a $10 table. If bankroll is not a concern, then bet the lowest amount that still gives you the excitement you’re looking for. For example, my blood gets pumping when my Place 6 or 8 is pressed up to $24 (I’m easily excitable).

Good luck at the craps tables!

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Dice Control Believers http://www.crapspit.org/dice-control-believers/ http://www.crapspit.org/dice-control-believers/#comments Wed, 09 Dec 2015 17:45:28 +0000 http://www.crapspit.org/?p=8673 We do not believe in the notion of dice control and you can read our article such as the one on “dice control scam” to see why we do not.  On this page we will share views of our readers who believe in dice control. Read our articles on dice control and decide what you want to believe!   DECEMBER ... Read More

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We do not believe in the notion of dice control and you can read our article such as the one on “dice control scam” to see why we do not.  On this page we will share views of our readers who believe in dice control. Read our articles on dice control and decide what you want to believe!

 

DECEMBER 2015 Comments & Messages

Dice man submitted

Yes dice control works! My 2 brothers and I play once a week and we constantly outperform random rollers. Is it perfect, no, but it can give you an edge over just random!

Jangoo2 submitted

I know you’re mind is already set, and nothing anyone says will change that. But I can tell you that dice control is not a scam. I’m living proof of it. Is it easy? No. Like anything else, if you want to be great at something, it takes time and practice. I practice my throws on a daily basis and it shows when I go to the casinos. Anyone who thinks they can read a book, and then go to the casinos and win a ton of money will be in for a BIG disappointment. I learned about dice control on the internet, all the information I received didn’t cost me anything. Practice sets? Build your own. It’s not that hard or expensive. But I like nay sayers like yourself. The worse thing that can happen is saturating casinos with true dice control players. So please continue convincing people dice control is a scam, and I’ll continue winning at the casinos.

 

FEBRUARY 2016 Comments & Messages

Axishooter

Whoever wrote this seems extremely disgruntled about something he obviously knows nothing about. Are you mad because you’re a loser at craps or something? Get a grip man, just don’t gamble if that’s the case. Lmao

APRIL 2016 Comments & Messages

Yourbaised

Well I am a believer in dice influence and I’m sure an online casino would be bias against such belief as it would negate anyone from going online to play craps. What certainty does the online player have that the online dice are rolling randomly, what guarantee is provided and how would it be proven? I’d argue that the online “dice outcome” model would not allow a 50 hand roll, let alone a 20 roll as the math is just to pure to provide.

In regard to dice influence, it is fine with me if you or anyone does not believe and I am able to throw the dice fast enough for no one to care. So leave me alone and let me play live, it’s more fun anyway.

JULY 2016 Comments & Messages

Andy:

I have been practicing dice control for a while now. The average is a 7 every 6 rolls. My best has been 30 and 42 rolls before seeing a 7. If you practice it can be done.

 

December 2016 Comments & Messages

Joef

There’s ALWAYS a group of people who don’t believe so they come out calling everyone else idiots, dummies, SCAM artists or whatever many names to make them feel better. I know “dice control” isn’t a real thing but I also know that when I 1st started to play craps, I would just grab the dice and throw hoping for any number but a 7. Except on the come out roll. I pretty much played as the casinos expected and want. I then changed to actually setting my dice, throwing a certain way and on every one of my throws I now have an expected result. Of course, I don’t get what I expect 100% the time but depending on the expectation, I get what I expect 20% to 50% of the time. For instance, I set the dice with the all 7 sets on a come out roll and bet the hop 7s. About 40% of the time I g et a 7. The odds of rolling a 7 added to the setting of the dice and maybe getting a perfect throw increases to a level worthy of a hop bet.

It’s much better than just jerking off the dice and throwing. If a throw is perfect and the dice rotates correctly, it hits the table and barely rolls to the base of the back wall ( where there’s no pyramids ) then the odds of what numbers come up are drastically changed. Sure no one can throw that perfect throw every time but it’s the slight advantage if you do that makes it worth it to practice.

I’ve been playing craps for just over 2 years and only setting my dice for the last 6 months. More times than not, I go at least 15 rolls before I hit a 7 ( not counting where I try to hit the 7 on a come out roll ) The way I bet, once I go 4 rolls deep, I am even and the money on the table is the casinos money. It’s very rare that I don’t can’t go 4 rolls after setting point. Sometimes the dice does hit some chips or I lose focus and throw right against the back wall hitting those pyramids.
It’s not TOTAL dice control but it’s more control than jerking and throwing.

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If I bet $20 on the Horn and the dice roll is 12, how much do I win? http://www.crapspit.org/if-i-bet-20-on-the-horn-and-the-dice-roll-is-12-how-much-do-i-win/ http://www.crapspit.org/if-i-bet-20-on-the-horn-and-the-dice-roll-is-12-how-much-do-i-win/#respond Thu, 17 Sep 2015 20:25:29 +0000 http://www.crapspit.org/?p=8627 We received the following question from a reader “If I bet $20 on the Horn and the dice roll is 12, how much do I win?” Let’s review the Horn bet to help make it easier to see the math. The one-roll Horn combines the numbers 12, 11, 3, and 2. Technically, the Horn bet is not a single bet ... Read More

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We received the following question from a reader “If I bet $20 on the Horn and the dice roll is 12, how much do I win?”

Let’s review the Horn bet to help make it easier to see the math. The one-roll Horn combines the numbers 12, 11, 3, and 2. Technically, the Horn bet is not a single bet with a single payoff odds. Instead, the Horn is actually four separate bets with each having its own payoff odds. It’s like tossing two chips to the stickman and saying, “I want a bet on the 2, and another bet on the 12, please,” and then deciding at the last second before the shooter rolls the dice, you toss the stickman two more chips and say, “I’d also like to get the 3 and the 11, please.” The stickman has multiple options for positioning your Horn bet on the table, depending on the table’s layout and the stickman’s mood. If the table layout has a box for the Horn (some tables don’t), he can stack all four chips in that box. If the layout has separate boxes for the 2, 3, 11, and 12, he can position one chip in each of those boxes. It doesn’t matter how the stickman positons your bets (as long as he does it correctly) because the end result is the same. Because the Horn is actually four separate bets, if a 12, 11, 3, or 2 shows, that’s the only bet that wins and the other three bets lose. So, now that we correctly understand the Horn, let’s do the math.

Suppose you toss the stickman $20 and say, “Horn, please.” Since the Horn is actually four separate bets on four separate numbers (i.e., the 12, 11, 3, and 2), divide your total bet amount by 4. (NOTE: We explain in our other article about the Horn why it’s important to make your Horn bet a multiple of 4.) This means you have four bets: a $5 bet on the 12, a $5 bet on the 11, a $5 bet on the 3, and a $5 bet on the 2. As we know from our other articles, the payoff for the 2 or 12 is 30:1, and the payoff for the 3 or 11 is 15:1. Suppose the shooter rolls a 12, the results are as follows:

  • Your $5 bet on the 12 wins. The payoff is 30:1. 30 x your $5 bet = you win $150.
  • Your $5 bet on the 11 loses. You lose the $5.
  • Your $5 bet on the 3 loses. You lose the $5.
  • Your $5 bet on the 2 loses. You lose the $5.
  • The net result is calculated as follows: $150 win on the 12 – $15 loss on the 11, 3, and 2 = $135. Your net win is $135 for your $20 Horn bet.

Keep in mind that the Horn is a terrible bet in terms of house advantage, which is about 12.5% (that’s huge!). The true odds for the 3 or 11 are 17:1 (i.e., 2 ways to roll either a 3 or 11, and 34 ways to roll anything else, which reduces down to 17:1), but the casino payoff is only 15:1 when you win. The house advantage for the 3 or 11 is about 11.1%. The true odds for the 2 or 12 are 35:1 (i.e., 1 way to roll either a 2 or 12, and 35 ways to roll anything else), but the casino payoff odds are only 30:1. The house advantage for the 2 or 12 is about 13.9% (that’s a killer for the player!). If you combine the house advantages for the 3 or 11 and for the 2 or 12, you get an overall casino advantage on the Horn bet of about 12.5%. In our opinion, there only two reasons to bet the Horn:

(1) the 2, 3, 11, and/or 12 are coming up every other roll so there’s an obvious trend that we might want to play for the very short-term; or

(2) we’re filthy rich and don’t care about flushing money down the toilet.

If you play the Horn and happen to win with it during a particular session, do not expect to continue winning with it. Over time, the casino will take all your money.

Good luck at the tables!

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How Dealers Keep Track of Everyone’s Bets http://www.crapspit.org/how-dealers-keep-track-of-everyones-bets/ http://www.crapspit.org/how-dealers-keep-track-of-everyones-bets/#respond Fri, 27 Feb 2015 23:59:52 +0000 http://www.crapspit.org/?p=8282 When the table gets hot and filled with 8 players squeezed in at each end, the point boxes on the layout are typically full of chips that appear at first glance to be scattered everywhere at the craps table. It looks like chaos to the untrained eye. How in the world do the dealers keep track of everyone’s bets? It’s ... Read More

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When the table gets hot and filled with 8 players squeezed in at each end, the point boxes on the layout are typically full of chips that appear at first glance to be scattered everywhere at the craps table. It looks like chaos to the untrained eye. How in the world do the dealers keep track of everyone’s bets? It’s actually a very well organized and simple process based on each player’s table position (i.e., the physical location where each player places his chips in the chip rack). In most cases, the player stands directly behind his chips. However, you might find a rare occasion, for example, where a drunk is at an empty table with his chips in the chip rack next to the stickman but he has staggered to the end of the table to throw the dice. In this unusual case, the physical location of his chip stack doesn’t correspond to the physical location of where he stands. So to keep it simple, let’s just say the process that the dealers use to track players’ chips is based on where each player stands at the table.

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This concept of positioning players’ chips in and around the point boxes based on where the players stand at the craps table applies to Come bets, Don’t Come bets, Buy bets, Lay bets, and Place bets. Let’s look specifically at the Place bet.  The illustration below shows the eight player positions at each end of the table. Position #1 is beside the stickman, and position #8 is at the end nearest the dealer. Note in the illustration that each point box as two rectangles for Place bets: (1) one rectangle at the top of the point box, and (2) one rectangle at the bottom of the point box. In the illustration below, we use the 4 point box to identify the location within each Place rectangle that corresponds to the player positions around the table. Looking at the 4 point box, we can see that players in positions #1 through #4 have their Place bets positioned in the Place rectangle that’s at the bottom of the point box, and the players in positions #5 through #8 have their Place bets positioned in the Place rectangle that’s at the top of the point box. Those relative positions as shown in the 4 point box are the same for all the other point boxes (i.e., the 5, 6, 8, 9, and 10). For example, the player standing in table position #1 (i.e., next to the stickman) always has his Place bets, regardless of which number he’s Place betting, positioned in the bottom Place rectangle at the far-left side of the rectangle. Let’s take a closer look at the illustration below for clarification. Look at the point boxes for the 5, 6, 8, 9, and 10, and notice the chips in the Place rectangles at the top and bottom of the point boxes. Let’s see if you’re paying attention…if the chips for the player in table position #1 are always positioned in the bottom Place rectangle at the far-left side, how many Place bets does player #1 have in the illustration below, and on what numbers are those Place bets? Very good! We see in the illustration below that the 9 and 10 have chips at the far-left sides of the bottom Place rectangles. Therefore, in this example, we can quickly see at a glance that the player in table position #1 has two Place bets, and they are on the 9 and 10.

Looking at the illustration below, we see that the point is 4 because of the white “ON” puck, and we see the following Place bets.

  • Place bets for player #1 are on the 9 and 10. We know this because only the 9 and 10 have chips at the far-left sides of the bottom Place rectangles.
  • Place bets for player #2 are on the 6 and 8. The 6 and 8 are the only numbers that have chips in the #2 position of the bottom Place rectangles.
  • Place bets for player #3 are on the 5 and 8. The 5 and 8 are the only numbers that have chips in the #3 position of the bottom Place rectangles.
  • Place bets for player #4 are on the 5 and 10. The 5 and 10 are the only numbers that have chips in the #4 position (i.e., the far-right sides) of the bottom Place rectangles.
  • Place bets for player #5 are on the 5, 6, and 8. The 5, 6, and 8 are the only numbers that have chips in the #5 position (i.e., the far-right sides) of the top Place rectangle.
  • There are no Place bets for player #6 because no chips are positioned in the #6 position of in the top Place rectangle for any of the numbers.
  • The Place bet for player #7 is on the 9. The 9 is the only number that has chips in the #7 position of the top Place rectangle.

Dealers Keep Track

What about player #8? Does she have any Place bets? As shown in the 4 point box in the illustration, if player #8 had any Place bets, they’d be positioned at the far-left side of the top Place rectangle. We see in the illustration above that there are no chips for any number positioned at the far-left sides of the top Place rectangles. Therefore, in the illustration, player #8 does not have any Place bets. Or does she? That was a trick question to see if you’ve been reading and studying our other articles. Yes, player #8 does, indeed, have a Place bet, and it’s on the point number, which is 4 (we know the point is 4 because of the “ON” puck, as shown in the illustration). Player #8’s Place bet on the point is positioned on the back line of the Pass Line directly in front of where she stands. Also notice how the $5 chip straddles the back line. That is, the chip is not in the apron and it is not inside the Pass Line. By perfectly straddling the back line, the dealers know her chip is a Place bet on the point number instead of a Pass Line bet. So, if you want to Place bet the point, you can make the bet yourself without the dealer’s help by positioning your chip(s) so it straddles the back line. Note that this can be done only when Placing the point. Place bets on any non-point number must be positioned by the dealer in the Place rectangles adjacent to the point boxes.

The way dealers pay off winning bets is just as organized and simple. The dealers follow a strict sequence for paying off bets and players. They never deviate from the sequence. The process is strictly adhered to because it helps the boxman and pit boss track payouts to ensure the right people are paid the right amounts. Pass Line bets are paid first, then all Come bets are paid, and then all Place bets are paid. Place bets are paid in sequence according to the players’ table positions, starting with the player in position #1 (next to the stickman) and ending with the player in position #8 (nearest the dealer).

Bets for the center section of the layout (e.g., the Hardways, etc.) are positioned in their little rectangles similarly to Place bets in that the chip positions inside the rectangle identify which bets belong to whom.

The next time you walk up to a crowded table and see a sea of chips scattered across the layout, be assured that the dealers (and the experienced players at the table) know exactly who owns every single chip on the table. It looks like chaos, but it is, in fact, the exact opposite.

More about Craps Dealers:

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Bubble Craps Machine http://www.crapspit.org/bubble-craps-machine/ http://www.crapspit.org/bubble-craps-machine/#comments Mon, 15 Dec 2014 03:32:33 +0000 http://www.crapspit.org/?p=8111 e’re starting to receive questions about a fairly new variety of craps called “Bubble Craps.” We here at the Crapspit avoid this game (we explain why in a moment), so we don’t know the details of how to work the user display, the payoffs, etc., but we can provide a basic description so you can then decide if it might ... Read More

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W e’re starting to receive questions about a fairly new variety of craps called “Bubble Craps.” We here at the Crapspit avoid this game (we explain why in a moment), so we don’t know the details of how to work the user display, the payoffs, etc., but we can provide a basic description so you can then decide if it might be something you’d want to check out in the casino.

Bubble craps” is a slang term for the latest electronic version of craps found in some casinos. The game hasn’t caught on with all casinos, but more and more are beginning to test it to see what kind of profit it can turn. As far as we know, the two primary makers of bubble craps machines are Aruze Gaming and Interblock. Aruze Gaming calls their game “Shoot to Win Craps,” and Interblock calls theirs “Organic Craps”. The game gets it slang name from the glass (or plastic) enclosed dome or compartment (i.e., the “bubble”) in the center of the unit that houses a big pair of dice. Refer to the pictures below to see what the units look like.

shoot to win craps

Above: Aruze Gaming’s 8-Seat “Shoot to Win Craps”

Organic Craps

Above: Interblock’s 2-Sided Center Display, 6-Seat “Organic Craps”

Organic Craps

Above: Interblock’s 3-Sided Center Display, 8-Seat “Organic Craps”

Notice that the Interblock pictures have three dice in the bubble. The machine is designed so the casino can determine whether to set it strictly for craps (which uses two dice), or to include the game of sic bo (which uses three dice). (Note: Sic bo is an old Chinese gambling game where you can bet on a variety of outcomes of three dice. Several English-language gambling and craps websites state that “sic bo” means “dice pair,” but Wikipedia and www.asiabet.org state that the literal translation is “precious dice.” We here at the Crapspit don’t speak the language and we don’t believe in blindly copying other craps websites that may or may not be presenting accurate information, so we freely admit that we don’t know which translation is correct.)

The Aruze Gaming and Interblock games are similar in concept but vary a bit in actual operation. For example, the Aruze Gaming machine uses a red button that the shooter presses to start the game and roll the dice; whereas, the Interblock machine doesn’t have a red button to shoot the dice. The following describes the basic operation of the Aruze Gaming machine.

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Shoot to Win Craps is a player-initiated craps game that recreates all the different bets of the traditional live table game. The game’s user display and Help screen are easy to understand and operate. Dice are in a “bubble” in the center of the unit. The bubble’s floor vibrates for a few seconds causing the dice to gently shake and bounce. The shooter presses the big red “Shoot” button at his/her station to “shoot” the dice. When the button is pushed, the bubble’s floor causes the dice to pop into the air, and tumble slightly to produce a random roll. The unit then accurately “reads” the outcome of the dice roll and electronically pays the players accordingly. All players take turns shooting the dice. The player’s screen has a layout that looks similar to a live table layout. The screen also has areas that show the roll history and a Help screen that explains each bet. The player can touch the Help screen, read about the bet, and then make the bet while the Help information is still visible. The user display also shows the “win condition” for the bets that the player has made so the beginner can see at a glance which numbers need to show for him/her to win. A Free Odds bet can be made and the casino can adjust the maximum allowable odds at their discretion (for basic information on the Free Odds bet, refer to our article on Free Odds). The Shoot to Win Craps machine can accommodate up to 50 seats to meet the casino’s needs (if the casino finds that the game successfully exceeds their profit goal, they can add more seats to increase their profits). When you’re ready to stop playing, the machine issues you a printed chit of your winnings, similar to the way modern slot machines issue printed chits.

Interblock’s Organic Craps machine can generate between 60 and 80 results per hour compared to a live table with 11 or 12 players that generally has an average of about 100 rolls per hour. We don’t know the rate of play for the Shoot to Win Craps machine, but we suspect that it’s similar to Interblock’s machine. Although the roll rate for these electronic machines isn’t as high as an average live table, the overhead cost for the machines is less. For example, a single live table requires four human dealers (three on duty with a fourth on break) and a boxman; plus, a bit boss to watch over the craps tables assigned to his/her pit. The machine only requires some electricity, some paper and ink for the chits, and occasional maintenance and calibration actions.

You read on forums that many people are leery about the fairness, accuracy, and randomness of the dice “roll” with a bubble craps machine. We generally don’t worry about that at a legitimate casino because we know the casino wouldn’t risk their gaming license on a game that isn’t considered fair by the state’s gaming authority. Gaming licenses are like gold. Can you imagine a casino losing its license and having to close its doors because it allowed an unfair machine to be played? Not gonna happen with a legitimate casino. You might be thinking, “If the machines meet the gaming authority’s fairness test, why do you avoid them?” Simply put, we don’t think they’re as much fun as a live table.

If we’re going to be in a live casino, then we want to play craps at a live table. Yes, we do enjoy playing craps online in our own homes, but let’s emphasize that we play at our favorite online casino only in the comfort of our homes, not at a casino. If we’re taking a vacation to a gambling destination such as Las Vegas and playing at a live casino, then we’re going to play at a live craps table to experience the fun and excitement of interacting with the craps dealers and other players. We’re not going to sit for hours at a machine pressing icons and buttons on a display screen. If we’re going to be in a casino, we prefer being at a live table whooping it up with our new friends when we win and cursing together when we lose. We want to touch our chips, toss them onto the layout, pick them up when we win, and say goodbye to them when we lose. Although we do enjoy playing craps online at home in our pajamas, we find that the game is a lot more fun at a live table. So, if we take the time and effort to go to a live casino, then we’re going to play at a live table, not at a bubble craps machine.

Some people believe that the bubble craps machines are a good way for the beginner to learn the game because they don’t get as intimidated as they might at a live table, and because they can play bubble craps for as low as $1 per bet (the part about not being as intimidated may not always be true). The logical question we’d ask is, why would you go to a live casino so unprepared (i.e., not knowing how to play the game)? At a bubble craps machine, you might be playing with other people on either side of you, or people might be standing behind you watching you play. Those people might wonder or flat-out ask you (they might be drunk or just plain rude), “Why did you make that sucker bet?” Or one of those people might be a know-it-all who can’t resist offering you his wisdom, “You should bet this way, not that way.” Also, the casino noise and smoke can distract you from your goal of learning the game. So, if your intent is to play bubble craps to learn the game, then why wouldn’t you learn the game before even going to your gambling destination, such as learning the game by playing at your favorite online casino in your own home, at your own pace, with no distractions at all? Suppose you say, “Well, I’m a loner and I hate people, so I like just sitting there by myself.” Our response would be, then why go to a live casino at all? Why not just stay home in your pajamas with your glass of wine and play online by yourself with some soothing music in the background without all that second-hand smoke? If you have a question about a certain bet while playing online, you can stop for a moment and refer to one of our many articles for help. If you’re going to learn the game or if you want to play at low limits such as $1, then we strongly suggest that you do it at your favorite online casino in the quiet and stress-free environment of your own home instead of at a bubble craps machine in a smoky, noisy, people-filled casino.

We here at the Crapspit see bubble craps as nothing more than a way for the casino to decrease their overhead costs and increase their profits. When we’re in a live casino, we play at a live table. When we want to play craps on a machine, we play online in the comfort of our own home. Despite our preferences, the popularity of bubble craps is growing in casinos worldwide such as in Reno and Atlantic City.

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Written by John Nelsen in partnership with the team of craps pros at crapspit.org.

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The “Free Odds” Bet in Craps http://www.crapspit.org/free-odds-bet-craps/ http://www.crapspit.org/free-odds-bet-craps/#comments Wed, 10 Dec 2014 23:16:52 +0000 http://www.crapspit.org/?p=8083 I know what you’re thinking. When it comes to casino games, including craps, nothing is free, so what’s this “Free Odds” bet? Sounds like something you’d want to take advantage of, right? Absolutely! We explain the Free Odds bet in detail in our other articles about the Pass Line and Don’t Pass bets, but we wanted to summarize the material ... Read More

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I know what you’re thinking. When it comes to casino games, including craps, nothing is free, so what’s this “Free Odds” bet? Sounds like something you’d want to take advantage of, right? Absolutely! We explain the Free Odds bet in detail in our other articles about the Pass Line and Don’t Pass bets, but we wanted to summarize the material in a separate article because many of our readers want to know the basics without digging into the details. Therefore, the following is a summary, and if you want the details, please refer to our other articles in which we teach you how to play craps.

The craps “Free Odds” bet is unusual because it’s the only bet on the table that doesn’t have a house advantage. Yes, you read that correctly…zero house advantage. The catch is (yes, there’s a catch, you didn’t think the casino was going to give you an opportunity to break even, did you?) that the Free Odds bet must be played in conjunction with another bet, either the Pass, Don’t Pass, Come, or Don’t Come. When adding the Free Odds bets to one of these “flat” bets, the casino still maintains its advantage over you, but their advantage is very small compared to most other bets on the table.

The approximate house advantages for these bets are as follows (they’re approximate because of rounding):

  • Pass Line or Come alone (i.e., no additional Free Odds bet) = 1.4%.
  • Don’t Pass or Don’t Come alone = 1.4%.
  • Pass or Come with Single Odds = 0.8%
  • Don’t Pass or Don’t Come with Single Odds = 0.7%.
  • Pass or Come with Double Odds = 0.6%.
  • Don’t Pass or Don’t Come with Double Odds = 0.5%.

As you can deduce, the more Odds you bet, the more you lower the casino’s advantage, but you’ll never be able to lower their advantage to zero. Remember, to make the Odds bet, you must first bet the flat Pass, Don’t Pass, Come, or Don’t Come, so when you combine the Odds bet with a flat bet, the casino always has an advantage (albeit comparatively small).

The “Free Odds” bet has zero house advantage because the casino pays true odds for this bet. That is, they don’t build profit into their payoff odds. (Refer to our other lessons on basic craps math to learn how the casino gets their edge by paying “casino” odds instead of true odds.) The true odds are based on the number of ways to roll the point number against the number of ways to roll a 7.

We know from our lesson on basic craps math that there are:

  • Six ways to roll a 7.
  • Five ways to roll a 6 or 8.
  • Four ways to roll a 5 or 9.
  • Three ways to roll a 4 or 10.

Consequently, the true-odds payoffs are:

  • 6:5 for the 6 and 8.
  • 3:2 for the 5 and 9.
  • 2:1 for 4 and 10.

The casino limits the amount of Odds you can bet, and those limits vary among casinos. Common among many casinos is a limit of 5x Odds (pronounced “5 times Odds”). Some casinos have 10x, 25x, and even as much as 100x. The “times” means you multiply the flat bet (e.g., the Pass or Come) by the Odds limit to determine the maximum Odds you’re allowed to bet. For example, supposed your favorite casino allows up to 5x Odds, and suppose you make a $5 flat Pass Line bet. In this example, the maximum amount of Odds you can bet is $25 (i.e., 5 x your $5 Pass bet = $25 in Odds). Let’s see if you’re paying attention. Suppose the casino allows up to 25x Odds and you make a $7 Pass Line bet.

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What’s the maximum amount of Odds you can take to go along with your Pass Line bet? Very good! That’s right, it’s $175 (i.e., your $7 Pass Line bet x 25 = $175). The maximum allowable Odds are usually posted on the placard hanging on the inside wall of the table. If you can’t see the placard or if it isn’t posted, simply ask the dealer what the maximum is. Some casinos step up the maximum Odds depending on the point number. For example, “3-4-5x Odds,” usually means you can bet 3x Odds on the 4 or 10, 4x Odds on the 5 or 9, and 5x Odds on the 6 or 8.

Let’s look at a simple scenario to see how the flat and Free Odds bets work together.

  1. Following a 7-out to end the game, the stickman prepares to push the dice to the next shooter. You make a $10 flat Pass Line bet by putting two red $5 chips in the Pass Line directly in front of you.
  1. The shooter rolls a 6, so the point for this game is 6. You glance down at the placard to see that the table’s maximum allowable Odds are 10x. Your gut tells you that the table is heating up because the table is crowded and noisy, and the players’ chip racks are filling up with red and green chips. You decide to bet the full 10x Odds by placing $100 (i.e., your $10 Pass Line bet x 10 = $100) in chips behind the line (i.e., in the apron about an inch behind your Pass Line bet).
  1. The shooter immediately hits a 6 on the next roll. Woohoo! Winner, winner! You shout to the shooter, “What took you so long?”
  1. The dealer pays you by placing $10 in chips next to your Pass Line bet (it pays off at even money), and then $120 in chips next to your Odds bet (it pays off at true odds, which are 6:5 for the point of 6, so you win $120 for your $100 Free Odds bet).

Reminder: For details and help in understanding these basics, refer to our lessons on basic craps math and the Pass Line bet. You can now go to the page that we list the craps bets or You can now head over to the table of contents to find more great content.

Author
Written by John Nelsen in partnership with the team of craps pros at crapspit.org.

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Gambler’s Fallacy : Bad theory, poor mathematics, unreasonable statistics, nonsense ? http://www.crapspit.org/gamblers-fallacy-bad-theory-statistics/ http://www.crapspit.org/gamblers-fallacy-bad-theory-statistics/#comments Sat, 01 Nov 2014 17:06:45 +0000 http://www.crapspit.org/?p=8053 At CrapsPit we have 2 posts about Gambler’s Fallacy and this makes for a third which is a reply to a post posted by a user in which the user states “Gambler’s Fallacy for what it is… bad theory, poor mathematics, unreasonable statistics and pure nonsense.” Here Don’t let the Gambler’s Fallacy Hook You. Gambler’s Fallacy Clarified : Providing examples ... Read More

The post Gambler’s Fallacy : Bad theory, poor mathematics, unreasonable statistics, nonsense ? appeared first on CrapsPit.org.

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At CrapsPit we have 2 posts about Gambler’s Fallacy and this makes for a third which is a reply to a post posted by a user in which the user states “Gambler’s Fallacy for what it is… bad theory, poor mathematics, unreasonable statistics and pure nonsense.” Here

  1. Don’t let the Gambler’s Fallacy Hook You.
  2. Gambler’s Fallacy Clarified : Providing examples to explain Gambler’s Fallacy.

comment

SevenOut, you completely miss the point of the article, and you apparently completely misunderstand the concept of the Gambler’s Fallacy since you stated that the concept is “bad theory, poor mathematics, unreasonable statistics, and pure nonsense.” By making that statement, it’s easy to conclude that you don’t know what you’re talking about.

First, let’s reiterate what the Gambler’s Fallacy is. As our two articles (listed above) explain, it’s when you believe a future outcome is based on past outcomes when the past outcomes have no impact at all on the future outcome. That concept can apply to multiple casino games, such as roulette and craps. In terms of playing craps, the concept is illustrated by the following simple example. You approach a half-empty table and stand back watching to see what numbers hit. After 30 minutes, you notice that the 6 and 8 haven’t hit at all. You also notice that the 7 has hit every other roll. You’re itching to start betting and you think, “Wow, the 6 and 8 are really due, and there’s no way the 7 can hit again after hitting so many times,” so you drop $24 and tell the dealer, “Twelve dollar six and eight, please.” On the very next roll, the shooter rolls a losing 7-out. In this case, you believed a particular number was “due” to hit because of past outcomes (i.e., all the rolls for the last 30 minutes never once produced a 6 or 8, and the 7 appeared many times, so you incorrectly believed that the 6 and 8 were due to hit and that the 7 was due to stop hitting). In this case, you believed a future outcome was based on past outcomes, when in reality the past outcomes have no effect on the future outcome.

That’s all the Gambler’s Fallacy is, nothing more. Yes, there are instances in life where future outcomes do depend on past outcomes, but never in craps. Never.  Now, let’s talk about our article with the two scenarios that you tried to refute.

Let’s not forget the intent of the article, which is simply to clarify for non-math people what the Gambler’s Fallacy is. The article addresses two fundamental principles by using a simple bag of marbles to help explain the concept:

(1) a case when past results do influence future results (the game of craps does not fall into this category); and

(2) a case when past results don’t influence future results (the game of craps does fall into this category).

To make those two distinct cases easy to understand, we use two scenarios, each with a bag of exactly 100 marbles, 50 red and 50 blue. The intent is not to compare the results of pulling marbles out of a bag to the results of dice rolls (that’s not what the Gambler’s Fallacy is; it’s not about results from rolling dice). The intent is simply to show non-math people a case where past results do affect future results and a case where past results do not affect future results. We’re not going to repeat the scenarios, you can read the article again, and this time we encourage you to pay more attention to what you’re reading.

Scenario #1 is a case where past outcomes do influence future outcomes. In this simple example, each time you pull a marble from the bag, it stays out of the bag (you do not put it back into the bag). By not putting the marble back in the bag, you influence your chances of removing a blue or red marble on your next pull (read the article again to see why and how the odds are changed). Again, forget about dice rolls, and don’t try to correlate marbles with dice. It doesn’t matter whether we’re playing with marbles or dice or tiddlywinks. Instead, focus on how past outcomes either do or don’t affect future outcomes.

Scenario #2 is a case where past outcomes do not influence future outcomes. In this simple example, after each time you pull out a marble, you put the marble back in the bag. By doing so, there are always 100 marbles (50 red, 50 blue) from which to pull, which keeps your chances of removing a blue or red marble at a constant 50:50. As you can see in this case, the odds never change regardless of how many blue or red marbles you’ve pulled on previous pulls. For example, you could pull 25 red marbles in a row, but in this situation where you always put the marble back in the bag, the odds of removing a blue or red marble on your next pull are still 50:50. In this situation, the odds never change from pull to pull (i.e., the past outcomes have zero influence on future outcomes).

The game of craps is like Scenario #2 in that the odds of rolling any number never change from roll to roll. Even if a 7 has appeared on every roll for 50 rolls, the odds of a 7 appearing on your 51st roll is that same as it was for each of the past 50 rolls. In craps, the results of past rolls have zero influence on the results of future rolls. Try looking at it this way, suppose you roll the dice and a 5 appears with a 2 on one die and a 3 on the other die. Before your next roll, you don’t paint over the 2 and the 3 so those numbers can’t appear on the next roll. Instead, the dice are exactly the same for your next roll as they were for your previous roll. You didn’t do anything to change the odds of rolling a 5 on your next roll. It’s like the bag of marbles whereby putting the marble back in the bag has the effect of not doing anything to change the odds of removing a blue or red marble on your next pull. In craps, regardless of the results of past rolls, the odds for future rolls never change. If you’re a craps player and your betting patterns are based on numbers that you perceive are “due to hit” because of past results, then you’ve sadly fallen for the Gambler’s Fallacy. Remember, the Gambler’s Fallacy is nothing more than believing a future outcome is based on past outcomes when the past outcomes have no impact at all on the future outcome. The concept applies to other casino games (not just craps), such as roulette as explained in our original article about the Gambler’s Fallacy.

SevenOut, regarding the rest of your comment, it may sound impressive to the inexperienced player but, sorry to say, it’s just gibberish. Plus, any credibility you may have had with our inexperienced readers was lost when you stated, “…would prove the Gambler’s Fallacy for what it is…bad theory, poor mathematics, unreasonable statistics, and pure nonsense.”

We urge you to read the material here at the Crapspit, but not be so quick to dispute and try to refute it, particularly the material that’s based on fact. You’re welcome to dispute non-factual material (such as disagreeing with the merits of a particular betting system) and we encourage you to continue posting. But arguing against fact, such as the concept of the Gambler’s Fallacy, is always a losing proposition.

Author
Written by John Nelsen in partnership with the team of craps pros at Crapspit.org

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