Why the Experts are Wrong about the value of House Edge & Big Red
This is an article taken from AhCraps.com My name is Larry Freiwald, the owner of AhCraps. I have a deep concern about the accuracy of information concerning the emphases placed on House Edge to advise
Life is like a Craps Game - You never know when a 7-Out will show up! If the above AhCraps.com inspired adage resonates in your very being; then perhaps you are a 7 Magnet! If this is true, - Rejoice! You are about to have an opportunity to change a 7-Out into a "7-In"! The first sentence of my "Crapy" Manual states that there are no losing numbers on a pair of dice! This truth is never more valid than for the #7. Because the law of probability predicts that the #7 will show up more times than any other number on a pair of dice, logic dictates that the #7 must be the Best Bet during the most common situation.
Let's look at the different ways you can make money when the most powerful number in the game of Craps shows up.
- Pass Line during a Come-Out: Pays even Odds.
- Come Box after a Come-Out: Pays even Odds.
- Don't Pass Line after a Come-Out: Pays even Odds.
- Don't Come behind a place number: Pays even Odds.
- Free Odds with Don't Pass Line after a Come-Out: (#'s 4 & 10 Pay 1 to 2 Odds), (#'s 5 & 9 Pay 2 to 3 Odds), (#'s 6 & 8 Pay 5 to 6 Odds
- Free Odds with Don't Come behind a place number: Same Odds as Free Odds with Don't Pass Line.
- Lay Bets any time: You must pay a 5% Lay Fee to receive True Odds on Bets that will produce at least a $20 Profit: (Odds on all Lay Place Numbers are the same as the Free Odds above.)
- Any 7 or "Big Red": Pays the Odds of 4 to 1!
(Special note: One of my viewers let me know that there is one more bet on the table that pays higher than even odds for a 7 showing. If you go to a Casino that offers a 3 way 7 or also known as a Hop Bet, it will pay 15 to 1 for one combination. When all 3 are played, you will net $13 if you bet $1 on each combination. A $3 Big Red will pay $12 profit. This is all true, but my focus on Big Red is two fold. One, Big Red is universal. The "any 7" is on all Craps Tables in every Casino that offers the game. And two, I want to dispel the debilitating Mindset of House Edge. "Thanks Dan, I am sure that other viewers would have questioned my motive to leave 3 way 7 out!")
It does not take a genius to see that in any given random roll of the dice, if the #7 shows, the Big Red Bet produces the most Profit for money you put at Risk! To put this fact in real numbers, I want to compare Big Red to Lay #4 and Big Red to the Pass Line during a Come-Out. If all three bets were in place during a Come-Out, this would be the result if a #7 were rolled:
- To produce a $19 ($20 - $1 Lay Fee) profit, you must risk $40 on Lay #4!
- You must risk $20 on the Pass Line to produce a $20 profit.
- However, you only have to risk $5 to produce a $20 profit on Big Red!
This is a huge difference!
So what seems to be the problem with betting on Big Red? It seems to have two great things working in its favor.
- It offers the highest percentage of showing in any random roll!
- It offers the highest profit for money risked when the #7 shows!
But the "Experts" are the first to tell future Craps Players in their books and magazine articles that Big Red is the Worst Bet on the Table and "Should never be made!" The answer they give to why, "in their opinion," it is a bad Bet has nothing to do with it being a One-Roll Bet; in fact, it has nothing to do with Real World "Craping"!
Most (Maybe one with a different opinion?) Experts say that Big Red is the worst bet because the House "Edge" is a whopping 16.67%! Can you honestly say you know what this means? And if so, do you think it is a good enough reason to pass up all those 7's on a Cold Table? You see, I don't think that most players understand what the Experts are saying, except that, the Casino always holds the advantage over you as an individual player and the Casino is structured to Steal your hard earned money. This is total Nonsense! But because this is the standard belief, Players are missing opportunity after opportunity to turn a perceived losing situation into a winning situation.
This individual strategy involves a belief that is the complete opposite of the standard belief perpetrated by the "Experts". I believe it is my responsibility to explain why I Know they are Wrong! Because, if I can not First convince you that I am right, you would be a fool to waste your time on a strategy that you have been warned by the "Experts" not to Play! But, if I can convince you that there is value in becoming a Skilled Big Red Player, consider the possibility of opening up a whole new area for moneymaking opportunitie$.
Should the "House Edge" be the Criteria for Evaluating The Value of a Bet?
No! And this is why:
- The whooping 16.67% "House Edge" or the slang term "Vig", or the use of "House Odds" is only valid in the real world "Law of Averages". In the real world, Odds are not valid in the Short-Term because they must be "Averaged" over the Long-Term.
- The Casino can only receive the benefit of this "Edge" at the time they Payoff a Winner!
Because there is so much confusion in this area of the "House Edge," I want to expand the explanation I gave on House Odds, as it relates to the "Edge," in my "Crapy" Manual.
This "Edge", first of all, is a misleading term that has the ability to make somebody, (most people), acquire the false belief that the Casino has rigged the game of craps in their favor! You will hear the slang term "Vig". The term "Vig" describes this "Edge" or "Advantage" the Casino has without the misunderstanding. This "Vig" is the mechanism the Casino uses to generate their guaranteed profit.
This is how the "Vig" of 16.67% is figured for Big Red. There are 6 chances of the 36 combination that will win. This means that 6 times will win, 30 times will lose out of a total of 36 events. Assuming someone is stupid enough to bet $1 on all 36 events, (at 4 to 1 odds) $24 would be won ($6 x $4 = $24) plus $6 would remain in hand. This would mean that one would have put a total of $36 at risk and end up with $30 ($24 + $6 = $30) of the total at risk. The casino would pocket the $6 difference! By taking the $6 of casino profit and dividing it by the total events (36) the .166666 or 16.67% Vig is determined.
This "Vig" percent is a tool used by the Casino to roughly figure the expected profit they should be making depending on the amount of action on a table. (If you see pit managers with pencil and paper, they are recording the average action on a table. They will also use this information to "rate" a player based on their average play. But I assure you that information is plugged into the "Vig" percent of expected profit.)
This would be similar to a guy holding a "card party" in his basement. He facilitates the game by providing the cards, chips, tables, food, and place. He wants a guaranteed way of payment for his service. He could do one of two things or, perhaps, both. One, he could charge a flat seat charge to all the players. Or two, he could take a percentage of the winning pots, say 10%. That 10% would be the Basement "Vig". Now this "Vig" does not influence the random distribution of cards, or the individual who wins or loses. What it does do is to lower the True Odds payoff for a winning hand. The better individual player still won, just not as much as if he did not have to contend with the Basement "Vig"! Does the Basement hold an "Edge" over the Players? This is a qualified Yes! The Basement holds the "Edge" in that the owner of the Basement is the only one who is guaranteed a Profit at the end of the night! The more tables he can set up, and the more winning pots he can take his "Vig", the more Profit he can expect. Does he hold this "Edge" over the individual player that will determine if he will win or lose? NO! He does not even play cards! Will the players calculate their betting patterns knowing that 10% of the pot is going to be missing if they win? Will I have to answer that?
Let's get back to the craps table at a Casino. Craps is a game played by individuals in a possible group. Therefore, there is no collective pot for the House to collect their "Vig". As a result, the Casino will collect it's "Vig" from Each Individual Winning Bet. This is how it works using Big Red as the only bet: The Casino "Holds Back" $1 from what would be a True Odds Payoff on a winning $1 Big Red Bet. Understand that the Casino uses True Odds (5 to 1) when collecting losses (Collects $5), but only pays off a win using House Odds (4 to 1) (Pays a winner $4). The $1 difference is the "Edge"! To show you what the "Experts" mean when they say that the "Edge" is too high, I am going to send you to Planet X where Odds will always work out on time - NO Trends!
Out of 36 combinations of numbers that a pair of Dice can produce on any given roll, 30 combinations will be non-7 producing numbers, and 6 combinations will produce the #7. This 30 combinations to 6 combinations ratio (30/6 = 5/1) is the same thing as saying that 5 combinations of non-#7 producing numbers will appear before a combination that adds up to the #7 appears. This means that on Planet X, in the Short-Term (this will be the same in our "Law of Averages" World in the Long-Term), the Casino will collect $5 on the 5 consecutive rolls of non-7 producing numbers. On the 6th roll that produces the #7, they will pay the winner $4. Let's see what this House "Edge" will do to a Player's Bankroll of $7 if he makes a $1 Big Red Bet on every roll playing on Planet X.
He starts with $7 in hand. At the end of the first #7 Cycle, he would lose $5. On the 6th roll, he would win $4 leaving $6 in hand ($7 - $5 + $4 = $6) or ($1 in hand + $1 returned after the win + $4 = $6.) At the end of the second Cycle, he will lose $5. On the 6th roll, he will win $4, now leaving only $5 in hand ($6 - $5 + $4 = $5). Since the third Cycle takes a loss of $5 before he can win $4 on the 6th roll, he will run out of money on the 5th roll! - GUARANTEED! The $1 the Casino "held back" will eat at his Bankroll at a rate of $1 per Cycle. No matter how much money he starts with, if he bets the same amount of money on every roll, at some point the $1 House "Edge" will eat up his Bankroll and any winnings he gains on the 6th roll. He is Guaranteed to go home a Loser!
Now if you think that I made a good case for the "Experts" telling you to avoid this Bet, - Please read on! Planet X would not be a good place to invest in a Casino! You see, all a Player has to figure out is to "Hold Back" a minimum of the first two bets after a #7 shows. At that time, he can start betting up to and including the 6th roll. As long as he Stops Betting for a minimum of the next two rolls after a #7 shows, he will always go home a Winner! - GUARANTEED! (The Player Held Back a $2 guaranteed loss, now only spending $3, and the Casino only Held Back $1. The Casino will give the player $4 on the Win, leaving a $1 Gain in the Player's favor for each 7 Cycle!) Once the Casinos could no longer use the money that Players lose to pay off a win and make their profit, they would run out of money and would have to shut down! The fact is that there could be no gambling on Planet X where everything is Perfect. All Players would either be Guaranteed to Lose, Guaranteed to Break Even, or Guaranteed to Win depending on the strategy they decided to use! On Planet X, the Casino has to depend on the complete stupidity of the Players to survive - Not on the House "Edge"!
Understanding how Planet X works where everything is perfect, what makes it possible for Players and Casinos to exist on our Not-so-Perfect Planet Earth? The reason is that Our Real World Not-So-Perfect Planet Earth offers an Acceptable Compromise of Both Worlds. For every Individual, Short-Term Player, there are Not-so-Perfect "Real World" Opportunities (No Guarantees) in form of Trends. Trends make it possible for the Smart, Short-Term Craps Player to go home a Winner. The Casino can stay in business because they benefit from a "Perfect World" Guaranteed Profit. This "Perfect" Profit is possible because they use House Odds to Pay winning Bets to all Gamblers, as a Group, over the Long-Term. Casinos being able to stay in business without gambling is important to all honest Players. Players need a Safe Legal, and Regulated environment to Gamble. The Back Alley is a Gamble in more ways than One!)
Odds in the Short-Term will work different in our World. The #7s will bunch up or string out, but rarely come out on a perfect schedule of 5 losses to every win, as it does on Planet X. The name we have given this unexplained phenomena is a Trend. A Trend is a useful phenomenon to a Smart, Short-Term Player who is aware of the conditions that designate a Trend and has the knowledge to take advantage of the Opportunities they provide! Casinos have No "Edge" over these Opportunities, allowing you as an Individual, Short-Term Player to go home a Winner!
You must understand that as an Individual, Short-Term Player you must be concerned about Trends. You will be a winner or a loser based on Trends, not Odds! If you use a method of Play that works on a Choppy Table or a Hot Roll (Betting Pass Line and Place Numbers) and you continue betting during a Cold Trend, - you will Lose! You will not lose because of the House "Edge," but because you used the wrong method of Play for that Situation! If you use Big Red = Big Buck$ strategy that was specifically designed for a Cold-Cool Trend and the Table "turns" Hot, exceeding the number of calculated rolls in a 7 Cycle, - you will lose for the same reason! Your challenge as a Smart Player will be to match up the right strategy with the right situation. Does this sound impossible? You may be surprised what you can do once you learn how to "Read a Table"!
Trends are important to the Individual, Short-Term Gambler, but not important to the Casino. What is important to the Casino is that, given enough time (Long-Term), Odds will "Average Out" over the "Ups" and "Downs" of Trends and will "Work Perfect" just as the Law of Probability predicts! They will collect the $5 from all the losing numbers from all the Craps Players that bet on Big Red (use True Odds) and pay out $4 to all the winning Craps Players that bet on Big Red whenever the #7 appears (use House Odds). As each 7 Cycle "Averages Out," they will collect their Guaranteed $1 Profit for every $1 winning bet! The reason Odds only apply to the Casino is that the Casino is involved in every Roll, twenty-four hours a day, as long as they are in business! It is impossible for you as an individual player to be involved in every roll for that long! And even if you could place the same bet on every roll for that long, you now know that you would be a Guaranteed Loser! (Just like betting every roll on Planet X!)
The House always having the "Edge" is the Truth but only a Half-Truth! The House Has the "Edge" because of the Perfect Profit over All Gamblers, as a Group, in the Long-Term because it takes that long to "Average" out to Perfect Odds, but the House Does not Have the "Edge" over you as an Individual, Short-Term Player because of Trends that Defy Perfect Odds!
All This, Just To Say that the "Experts" are Wrong to evaluate the value of a Bet that is made by You, a Short-Term, Trend Dependent Player, based on the House "Edge," which involves Long-Term Odds!
Just as a passing thought at the end of this pivotal subject: I wonder how the experts would tell you to bet if there were such a thing as "Disney Land Casinos" where the casino's income was generated solely by an admission fee, and they gave true odds on all the bets? (meaning that money would just be exchanged between winners and losers) Would the House Admission Fee "Edge" be a factor?
To be able to use My Big Red Strategy with confidence (proper mindset), it is very important that you fully understand what House Edge is and why it should not influence your betting patterns. Have I made myself clear?
- If you need more time - take it!
- If I have convinced you - Learn how to play the most overlooked winning bet in the game of craps! Understand that I am not advocating a Big Red bet on every roll. That would be stupid! However, the study of 7-cycles and key indicators will give you the tools necessary to play my structured Big Red strategy with confidence.- Sign up today!
- If not - continue doing what works for you! Thanks, Larry