Bad bets / good bets in Craps
First of all, all the bets in the middle are bad, no matter what. Secondly, all the bets immediately in front of you are equally bad (if not worse.)
In my humble opinion, the pass line (and come) are the worst bets on the table. I understand about the 1.4% advantage and all, but has anyone actually calculated odds against, after the come out? I found two books a long time ago that stated the average against you, on the pass line after a point is established is around 34-35%. That is to say, the odds against "repeating" the point before a 7. I remember reading the any seven bet was only 12 or 13% against you. Your only advantage comes on the come out (of course.)
So look at this rationally. You bet one unit on the line, a seven hits you win one unit. You come back with the same bet. Lets say a 9 nine is thrown, you take double-or triple-or 5x-or 10x odds because its a "free" bet. The odds are 35% against that "free bet", lets say you lose it. You're down now what ever the odds are that you laid. Lets say it was triple odds, ok you're down 3 units. Next roll, you win on a come out, you're down 2 units.
Next roll a 10, you take odds lose it, and now are down 4 more units or 6 units! Now, if they say only 1 in 10 shooters is "warm or hot" can't people see how they get killed at a choppy table? You have to win twice on the line, with an advantage of 35% against you in order to come out ahead...hence, one of the worst bets in the house.
The Come is worse, because it is just a faster version of the line, so you lose much, more quickly.
The second worst bet is the don't pass, only because you don't have an advantage on the come out, and laying odds is the worst thing you could do.
They asked the Greek before he died, if he where to do it over again what would he do differently, he replied.."never lay odds."
The problem is that you're not winning enough money constantly. Lets say on the come out the shooter can roll only four numbers, the 2, 3, 7, or 10.. would you play craps there? I wouldn't. Let's imagine that for 10 shooters the point is always either 4 or 10 (the best don't number.) You lay only single odds against the shooter, with a line bet of $5 and $10 odds. So $15 wins you $10. Lets say you win 7 times, that means you win $70 lose $45 and have a $25 profit...not bad. If you didn't lay, you would win 7 times for $35 and lose 3 times for $15 and win only $20. That's only $5 difference, winning 7 times...but lets say you only win 6 times, that's a profit of $4, versus not laying which is a profit of $10.
With just one more loss you went from winning $5 to coming out $6 behind the guy who doesn't lay odds...and it gets worse if you lose more. If you win more, are you winning all that much? perhaps...but you would have to win 9 out of 10 in order to show some type of real profit...which of course hardly happens with a don't better.
So laying odds is bad, you shouldn't lay them. But as every don't shooter knows, some little old lady is going to walk up to a table throw 7,12,11,7, before a number and wipe out the past 3 wins you made (before she even threw a point!) So if you play don't, and don't take the odds...and someone throws 3 or 4 naturals on the come out, you're wiped out! So even betting don't is bad.
For some reason, Don't Come however, is different, even though the odds are the same the amount of times the 7 comes immediately after the point number, is far far less then on the come out (but the number of damn 11's stay the same.) So I like the don't come, also because that 34% is working for you, and not against you.
The doey/don't doesn't work because you have to lay odds, which is put out more money then you win, which I should before not only doesn't work but is even worse when you don't have a flat bet. For example, 4 and 10 again, doey/don't and you are laying $10 to win $5. You have to win your profit ends at 7 wins, ($5) anything less then 7 wins out of 10 and your sunk.
The only good bet is the place bets...and only for the 2 reasons, one they can be taken down at any time, and second you pick your numbers. The odds are much much much better when you try to throw one number instead of repeating it before a seven, and that is what people don't understand. What they also don't understand is that the seven should mathematically come up one out of every six rolls....and that is all rolls, not just box number rolls, but all of them. If someone walked up to a table and threw 2, 3, 12, 11, 2, 3, 11, 12, 2, 3, 11, 2, 12, 12, 2, his odds of throwing a seven are greater then the guy who throws 5, 6, 8, 9. How many times do people at a crap table stand there and not even pay attention.
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